Arizona natural hazard risk by county

Arizona has about $3.60 billion in modeled expected annual loss across 15 counties. The state accounts for 2.3% of the national modeled loss total. Its total ranks #10 among 56 state-level entries by modeled loss. FEMA published these 15 county estimates in its December 2025 National Risk Index. The modeled $3.60 billion annual average does not predict loss in any one year.

Modeled expected annual loss

$3.60 billion / year

Share of US loss

2.3%

State loss rank

#10 of 56

Largest modeled-loss hazard

Riverine Flood

Reading the Arizona county map

The map groups 15 county estimates into five within-state loss classes. Each boundary follows the county geography, while the fill represents modeled dollars per year. The class breaks are calculated from Arizona county values, so a matching shade on another state page need not represent the same amount. Grey marks unmatched geography or an unavailable estimate. Outlined counties link to the detailed profiles available in this release; counties without profiles still contribute to the state totals.

Together, the three largest estimates account for 79.6% of Arizona modeled annual loss. Their combined population represents 82.4% of the state source population. Comparing these two shares helps distinguish the concentration of modeled dollars from the concentration of residents. Neither share identifies the exposure of an individual address, and the map does not show the location of damage within a county.

County totals beside population

Maricopa County, AZ combines about $2.20 billion in modeled annual loss with 4,418,836 recorded residents. Dividing those figures gives about $497 per resident, compared with $504 statewide. On this population-adjusted measure, the county places #8 among the 15 state county records. This ratio spreads all modeled losses across residents for comparison; it is not a household bill, an insurance premium or an estimate of personal damage.

Pima County, AZ combines about $531.4 million in modeled annual loss with 1,042,716 recorded residents. Dividing those figures gives about $510 per resident, compared with $504 statewide. On this population-adjusted measure, the county places #7 among the 15 state county records. This ratio spreads all modeled losses across residents for comparison; it is not a household bill, an insurance premium or an estimate of personal damage.

Pinal County, AZ combines about $137.5 million in modeled annual loss with 424,095 recorded residents. Dividing those figures gives about $324 per resident, compared with $504 statewide. On this population-adjusted measure, the county places #14 among the 15 state county records. This ratio spreads all modeled losses across residents for comparison; it is not a household bill, an insurance premium or an estimate of personal damage.

Where the leading hazards are concentrated

For riverine flooding, Maricopa County, AZ contributes 56.4% of the state hazard total. The next county, Pima County, AZ, contributes about $347.4 million annually, compared with $1.12 billion for the leader. Across Arizona, 15 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $518.1 million after those two leading estimates. The state places #9 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 55.1%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.

For heat waves, Maricopa County, AZ contributes 81.0% of the state hazard total. The next county, Pima County, AZ, contributes about $133.1 million annually, compared with $958.0 million for the leader. Across Arizona, 15 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $91.1 million after those two leading estimates. The state places #1 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 32.8%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.

For wildfires, Maricopa County, AZ contributes 18.5% of the state hazard total. The next county, Pima County, AZ, contributes about $37.6 million annually, compared with $42.2 million for the leader. Across Arizona, 15 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $148.6 million after those two leading estimates. The state places #2 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 6.3%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.

For earthquakes, Yuma County, AZ contributes 50.3% of the state hazard total. The next county, Maricopa County, AZ, contributes about $30.7 million annually, compared with $52.0 million for the leader. Across Arizona, 15 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $20.7 million after those two leading estimates. The state places #22 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 2.9%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.

For hail, Maricopa County, AZ contributes 83.2% of the state hazard total. The next county, Pima County, AZ, contributes about $1.8 million annually, compared with $24.2 million for the leader. Across Arizona, 15 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $3.1 million after those two leading estimates. The state places #22 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 0.8%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.

For lightning, Coconino County, AZ contributes 19.0% of the state hazard total. The next county, Navajo County, AZ, contributes about $3.4 million annually, compared with $5.5 million for the leader. Across Arizona, 15 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $19.8 million after those two leading estimates. The state places #24 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 0.8%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.

Arizona hazard totals and county comparisons

Arizona hazard totals combine the county estimates. The largest county column identifies concentration within each hazard; the state rank compares the same hazard across state-level entries.

Arizona county loss totals

Arizona population, values and ratings

Population

7,144,933

Building value

$1,359.13 billion

Agricultural value

$4.96 billion

Modeled loss per resident

$504

Arizona county pages

Arizona has 1 detailed county page linked below.

• Maricopa County, AZ: county detail

US county comparisons alongside Arizona