Oklahoma natural hazard risk by county
Oklahoma has about $2.12 billion in modeled expected annual loss across 77 counties. The state accounts for 1.4% of the national modeled loss total. Its total ranks #25 among 56 state-level entries by modeled loss. FEMA published these 77 county estimates in its December 2025 National Risk Index. The modeled $2.12 billion annual average does not predict loss in any one year.
- Modeled expected annual loss
- $2.12 billion / year
- Share of US loss
- 1.4%
- State loss rank
- #25 of 56
- Largest modeled-loss hazard
- Riverine Flood
Oklahoma county modeled loss
- Positive estimates to $7.5 million
- Above $7.5 million to $11.2 million
- Above $11.2 million to $21.3 million
- Above $21.3 million to $33.6 million
- Above $33.6 million to $297.5 million
- No FEMA estimate
Oklahoma counties use five within-state quantile classes of modeled expected annual loss. Darker rust means a larger estimate; outlined counties have detailed pages.
View chart data
| County | Modeled expected annual loss (USD/year) | Overall risk rating |
|---|---|---|
| Blaine County, OK | 9,532,901.40 | Very Low |
| Comanche County, OK | 50,830,572.25 | Relatively Moderate |
| Beckham County, OK | 12,998,337.42 | Relatively Low |
| Kingfisher County, OK | 17,690,881.56 | Relatively Low |
| Custer County, OK | 18,805,851.94 | Relatively Low |
| Greer County, OK | 4,489,871.06 | Very Low |
| Cherokee County, OK | 28,288,688.18 | Relatively Low |
| Grady County, OK | 33,975,943.58 | Relatively Low |
| Carter County, OK | 28,003,748.99 | Relatively Low |
| Pushmataha County, OK | 6,344,242.98 | Very Low |
| Creek County, OK | 43,995,711.48 | Relatively Moderate |
| Alfalfa County, OK | 10,056,768.71 | Very Low |
| Cotton County, OK | 2,862,953.93 | Very Low |
| Wagoner County, OK | 34,538,137.88 | Relatively Low |
| Cleveland County, OK | 111,904,684.98 | Relatively Moderate |
| Murray County, OK | 7,941,722.67 | Very Low |
| Okmulgee County, OK | 23,429,830.20 | Relatively Low |
| Choctaw County, OK | 9,208,856.47 | Relatively Low |
| Jefferson County, OK | 4,805,776.77 | Very Low |
| Nowata County, OK | 8,268,507.28 | Very Low |
| Woods County, OK | 11,723,098.73 | Very Low |
| Woodward County, OK | 12,693,004.75 | Very Low |
| Pottawatomie County, OK | 36,672,124.01 | Relatively Moderate |
| McIntosh County, OK | 13,972,424.46 | Relatively Low |
| Okfuskee County, OK | 7,482,947.23 | Very Low |
| Garfield County, OK | 43,085,155.68 | Relatively Moderate |
| Ellis County, OK | 5,724,789.62 | Very Low |
| Jackson County, OK | 54,364,402.97 | Relatively Moderate |
| Texas County, OK | 19,469,739.03 | Relatively Low |
| Kay County, OK | 33,626,288.70 | Relatively Low |
| Lincoln County, OK | 19,914,559.15 | Relatively Low |
| Logan County, OK | 35,160,169.97 | Relatively Low |
| Adair County, OK | 12,255,754.89 | Relatively Low |
| Garvin County, OK | 19,940,528.95 | Relatively Low |
| Kiowa County, OK | 7,627,682.92 | Very Low |
| Pawnee County, OK | 11,229,282.90 | Relatively Low |
| Johnston County, OK | 5,459,745.04 | Very Low |
| McClain County, OK | 25,866,245.41 | Relatively Low |
| Oklahoma County, OK | 297,511,340.38 | Relatively High |
| Osage County, OK | 27,617,922.10 | Relatively Low |
| Payne County, OK | 50,252,593.86 | Relatively Moderate |
| Coal County, OK | 5,954,605.33 | Very Low |
| Hughes County, OK | 9,616,920.42 | Very Low |
| Pontotoc County, OK | 21,280,879.10 | Relatively Low |
| Haskell County, OK | 9,489,060.61 | Very Low |
| Latimer County, OK | 6,707,009.56 | Very Low |
| McCurtain County, OK | 18,449,537.30 | Relatively Low |
| Stephens County, OK | 22,541,972.72 | Relatively Low |
| Muskogee County, OK | 34,010,867.05 | Relatively Moderate |
| Ottawa County, OK | 23,625,819.17 | Relatively Low |
| Delaware County, OK | 29,945,927.41 | Relatively Moderate |
| Harmon County, OK | 3,301,007.46 | Very Low |
| Mayes County, OK | 26,202,699.98 | Relatively Low |
| Sequoyah County, OK | 23,547,377.36 | Relatively Low |
| Canadian County, OK | 73,863,651.38 | Relatively Moderate |
| Atoka County, OK | 7,488,466.92 | Very Low |
| Pittsburg County, OK | 21,964,200.23 | Relatively Low |
| Tillman County, OK | 4,362,570.11 | Very Low |
| Bryan County, OK | 23,981,330.30 | Relatively Low |
| Le Flore County, OK | 31,954,547.72 | Relatively Moderate |
| Noble County, OK | 9,689,422.62 | Relatively Low |
| Seminole County, OK | 13,384,611.06 | Relatively Low |
| Dewey County, OK | 5,775,003.80 | Very Low |
| Love County, OK | 6,624,581.74 | Very Low |
| Roger Mills County, OK | 4,806,063.28 | Very Low |
| Tulsa County, OK | 292,093,589.91 | Relatively High |
| Washita County, OK | 6,843,296.77 | Very Low |
| Caddo County, OK | 17,025,747.32 | Relatively Low |
| Cimarron County, OK | 9,774,490.68 | Relatively Low |
| Washington County, OK | 31,783,778.75 | Relatively Low |
| Grant County, OK | 7,454,383.48 | Very Low |
| Marshall County, OK | 9,574,228.01 | Relatively Low |
| Harper County, OK | 10,206,342.34 | Relatively Low |
| Beaver County, OK | 12,042,343.87 | Very Low |
| Craig County, OK | 12,331,244.88 | Relatively Low |
| Major County, OK | 10,590,949.41 | Very Low |
| Rogers County, OK | 43,013,186.69 | Relatively Low |
Reading the Oklahoma county map
The map groups 77 county estimates into five within-state loss classes. Each boundary follows the county geography, while the fill represents modeled dollars per year. The class breaks are calculated from Oklahoma county values, so a matching shade on another state page need not represent the same amount. Grey marks unmatched geography or an unavailable estimate. Outlined counties link to the detailed profiles available in this release; counties without profiles still contribute to the state totals.
Together, the three largest estimates account for 33.1% of Oklahoma modeled annual loss. Their combined population represents 44.5% of the state source population. Comparing these two shares helps distinguish the concentration of modeled dollars from the concentration of residents. Neither share identifies the exposure of an individual address, and the map does not show the location of damage within a county.
Ten largest county loss estimates
Oklahoma County, OK has the largest modeled expected annual loss in this comparison, about $297.5 million.
View chart data
| Place | USD / year |
|---|---|
| Oklahoma County, OK | 297,511,340.38 |
| Tulsa County, OK | 292,093,589.91 |
| Cleveland County, OK | 111,904,684.98 |
| Canadian County, OK | 73,863,651.38 |
| Jackson County, OK | 54,364,402.97 |
| Comanche County, OK | 50,830,572.25 |
| Payne County, OK | 50,252,593.86 |
| Creek County, OK | 43,995,711.48 |
| Garfield County, OK | 43,085,155.68 |
| Rogers County, OK | 43,013,186.69 |
County totals beside population
Oklahoma County, OK combines about $297.5 million in modeled annual loss with 795,336 recorded residents. Dividing those figures gives about $374 per resident, compared with $537 statewide. On this population-adjusted measure, the county places #77 among the 77 state county records. This ratio spreads all modeled losses across residents for comparison; it is not a household bill, an insurance premium or an estimate of personal damage.
Tulsa County, OK combines about $292.1 million in modeled annual loss with 668,481 recorded residents. Dividing those figures gives about $437 per resident, compared with $537 statewide. On this population-adjusted measure, the county places #73 among the 77 state county records. This ratio spreads all modeled losses across residents for comparison; it is not a household bill, an insurance premium or an estimate of personal damage.
State hazard loss mix
Riverine Flood leads the modeled expected annual loss mix; bar lengths share a zero baseline.
View chart data
| Hazard | USD / year | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Riverine Flood | 737,668,000.26 | 34.8% |
| Tornado | 370,092,514.39 | 17.4% |
| Heat Wave | 240,840,686.92 | 11.4% |
| Cold Wave | 221,278,439.32 | 10.4% |
| Hail | 119,502,349.71 | 5.6% |
| Strong Wind | 110,288,139.66 | 5.2% |
| Other | 321,255,398.27 | 15.1% |
Cleveland County, OK combines about $111.9 million in modeled annual loss with 295,221 recorded residents. Dividing those figures gives about $379 per resident, compared with $537 statewide. On this population-adjusted measure, the county places #76 among the 77 state county records. This ratio spreads all modeled losses across residents for comparison; it is not a household bill, an insurance premium or an estimate of personal damage.
Where the leading hazards are concentrated
For riverine flooding, Tulsa County, OK contributes 18.7% of the state hazard total. The next county, Oklahoma County, OK, contributes about $127.5 million annually, compared with $137.9 million for the leader. Across Oklahoma, 77 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $472.2 million after those two leading estimates. The state places #29 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 34.8%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.
County hazard rating counts
- Very Low
- Relatively Low
- Relatively Moderate
- Relatively High
- Very High
- No rating
Oklahoma has 77 county records in each row. Each bar shows the FEMA risk rating distribution for one of the three largest modeled-loss hazards.
View chart data
| Hazard | Rating | Count |
|---|---|---|
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 32 |
| Riverine Flood | Relatively Low | 29 |
| Riverine Flood | Relatively Moderate | 14 |
| Riverine Flood | Relatively High | 2 |
| Riverine Flood | Very High | 0 |
| Riverine Flood | No rating | 0 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 1 |
| Tornado | Relatively Low | 28 |
| Tornado | Relatively Moderate | 31 |
| Tornado | Relatively High | 15 |
| Tornado | Very High | 2 |
| Tornado | No rating | 0 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 9 |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 33 |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 32 |
| Heat Wave | Relatively High | 3 |
| Heat Wave | Very High | 0 |
| Heat Wave | No rating | 0 |
For tornadoes, Oklahoma County, OK contributes 14.7% of the state hazard total. The next county, Tulsa County, OK, contributes about $37.1 million annually, compared with $54.2 million for the leader. Across Oklahoma, 77 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $278.7 million after those two leading estimates. The state places #10 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 17.4%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.
For heat waves, Tulsa County, OK contributes 31.4% of the state hazard total. The next county, Oklahoma County, OK, contributes about $50.8 million annually, compared with $75.5 million for the leader. Across Oklahoma, 77 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $114.5 million after those two leading estimates. The state places #9 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 11.4%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.
For cold waves, Cleveland County, OK contributes 9.0% of the state hazard total. The next county, Garfield County, OK, contributes about $15.5 million annually, compared with $19.9 million for the leader. Across Oklahoma, 77 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $185.9 million after those two leading estimates. The state places #14 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 10.4%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.
For hail, Oklahoma County, OK contributes 22.9% of the state hazard total. The next county, Cleveland County, OK, contributes about $10.8 million annually, compared with $27.4 million for the leader. Across Oklahoma, 77 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $81.3 million after those two leading estimates. The state places #9 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 5.6%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.
For strong wind, Jackson County, OK contributes 40.1% of the state hazard total. The next county, Tulsa County, OK, contributes about $10.8 million annually, compared with $44.2 million for the leader. Across Oklahoma, 77 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $55.2 million after those two leading estimates. The state places #12 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 5.2%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.
Oklahoma hazard totals and county comparisons
| Hazard | Modeled annual loss | State share | VH / RH counties | Largest county | US state rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riverine Flood | $737.7 million | 34.8% | 0 / 2 | Tulsa County, OK | #29 of 56 |
| Tornado | $370.1 million | 17.4% | 2 / 15 | Oklahoma County, OK | #10 of 56 |
| Heat Wave | $240.8 million | 11.4% | 0 / 3 | Tulsa County, OK | #9 of 56 |
| Cold Wave | $221.3 million | 10.4% | 0 / 11 | Cleveland County, OK | #14 of 56 |
| Hail | $119.5 million | 5.6% | 1 / 11 | Oklahoma County, OK | #9 of 56 |
| Strong Wind | $110.3 million | 5.2% | 2 / 11 | Jackson County, OK | #12 of 56 |
| Ice Storm | $101.7 million | 4.8% | 27 / 36 | Oklahoma County, OK | #2 of 56 |
| Drought | $96.4 million | 4.5% | 0 / 20 | Texas County, OK | #6 of 56 |
| Wildfire | $60.3 million | 2.8% | 0 / 0 | Le Flore County, OK | #13 of 56 |
| Earthquake | $36.0 million | 1.7% | 0 / 0 | Oklahoma County, OK | #35 of 56 |
| Lightning | $16.6 million | 0.8% | 0 / 8 | Oklahoma County, OK | #34 of 56 |
| Winter Weather | $8.7 million | 0.4% | 0 / 11 | Cleveland County, OK | #26 of 56 |
| Hurricane | $1.2 million | 0.1% | 0 / 0 | Le Flore County, OK | #36 of 56 |
| Landslide | $278,000 | 0.0% | 0 / 0 | Murray County, OK | #34 of 56 |
Hazard shares show which modeled expected annual losses dominate the state total; ranks compare state totals for the same hazard.
Oklahoma hazard totals combine the county estimates. The largest county column identifies concentration within each hazard; the state rank compares the same hazard across state-level entries.
Oklahoma county loss totals
| County | Risk index rating | Modeled annual loss | Largest hazard |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma County | Relatively High | $297.5 million | Riverine Flood |
| Tulsa County | Relatively High | $292.1 million | Riverine Flood |
| Cleveland County | Relatively Moderate | $111.9 million | Riverine Flood |
| Canadian County | Relatively Moderate | $73.9 million | Riverine Flood |
| Jackson County | Relatively Moderate | $54.4 million | Strong Wind |
| Comanche County | Relatively Moderate | $50.8 million | Riverine Flood |
| Payne County | Relatively Moderate | $50.3 million | Cold Wave |
| Creek County | Relatively Moderate | $44.0 million | Riverine Flood |
| Garfield County | Relatively Moderate | $43.1 million | Cold Wave |
| Rogers County | Relatively Low | $43.0 million | Riverine Flood |
| Pottawatomie County | Relatively Moderate | $36.7 million | Tornado |
| Logan County | Relatively Low | $35.2 million | Cold Wave |
| Wagoner County | Relatively Low | $34.5 million | Riverine Flood |
| Muskogee County | Relatively Moderate | $34.0 million | Riverine Flood |
| Grady County | Relatively Low | $34.0 million | Tornado |
Show all 77 counties
| County | Risk index rating | Modeled annual loss | Largest hazard |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kay County | Relatively Low | $33.6 million | Riverine Flood |
| Le Flore County | Relatively Moderate | $32.0 million | Riverine Flood |
| Washington County | Relatively Low | $31.8 million | Riverine Flood |
| Delaware County | Relatively Moderate | $29.9 million | Riverine Flood |
| Cherokee County | Relatively Low | $28.3 million | Riverine Flood |
| Carter County | Relatively Low | $28.0 million | Tornado |
| Osage County | Relatively Low | $27.6 million | Riverine Flood |
| Mayes County | Relatively Low | $26.2 million | Riverine Flood |
| McClain County | Relatively Low | $25.9 million | Riverine Flood |
| Bryan County | Relatively Low | $24.0 million | Tornado |
| Ottawa County | Relatively Low | $23.6 million | Riverine Flood |
| Sequoyah County | Relatively Low | $23.5 million | Riverine Flood |
| Okmulgee County | Relatively Low | $23.4 million | Riverine Flood |
| Stephens County | Relatively Low | $22.5 million | Riverine Flood |
| Pittsburg County | Relatively Low | $22.0 million | Riverine Flood |
| Pontotoc County | Relatively Low | $21.3 million | Tornado |
| Garvin County | Relatively Low | $19.9 million | Riverine Flood |
| Lincoln County | Relatively Low | $19.9 million | Riverine Flood |
| Texas County | Relatively Low | $19.5 million | Drought |
| Custer County | Relatively Low | $18.8 million | Tornado |
| McCurtain County | Relatively Low | $18.4 million | Riverine Flood |
| Kingfisher County | Relatively Low | $17.7 million | Riverine Flood |
| Caddo County | Relatively Low | $17.0 million | Riverine Flood |
| McIntosh County | Relatively Low | $14.0 million | Riverine Flood |
| Seminole County | Relatively Low | $13.4 million | Riverine Flood |
| Beckham County | Relatively Low | $13.0 million | Tornado |
| Woodward County | Very Low | $12.7 million | Riverine Flood |
| Craig County | Relatively Low | $12.3 million | Riverine Flood |
| Adair County | Relatively Low | $12.3 million | Riverine Flood |
| Beaver County | Very Low | $12.0 million | Drought |
| Woods County | Very Low | $11.7 million | Cold Wave |
| Pawnee County | Relatively Low | $11.2 million | Riverine Flood |
| Major County | Very Low | $10.6 million | Cold Wave |
| Harper County | Relatively Low | $10.2 million | Drought |
| Alfalfa County | Very Low | $10.1 million | Cold Wave |
| Cimarron County | Relatively Low | $9.8 million | Drought |
| Noble County | Relatively Low | $9.7 million | Cold Wave |
| Hughes County | Very Low | $9.6 million | Hail |
| Marshall County | Relatively Low | $9.6 million | Riverine Flood |
| Blaine County | Very Low | $9.5 million | Riverine Flood |
| Haskell County | Very Low | $9.5 million | Riverine Flood |
| Choctaw County | Relatively Low | $9.2 million | Tornado |
| Nowata County | Very Low | $8.3 million | Riverine Flood |
| Murray County | Very Low | $7.9 million | Riverine Flood |
| Kiowa County | Very Low | $7.6 million | Tornado |
| Atoka County | Very Low | $7.5 million | Riverine Flood |
| Okfuskee County | Very Low | $7.5 million | Drought |
| Grant County | Very Low | $7.5 million | Cold Wave |
| Washita County | Very Low | $6.8 million | Riverine Flood |
| Latimer County | Very Low | $6.7 million | Riverine Flood |
| Love County | Very Low | $6.6 million | Riverine Flood |
| Pushmataha County | Very Low | $6.3 million | Riverine Flood |
| Coal County | Very Low | $6.0 million | Hail |
| Dewey County | Very Low | $5.8 million | Ice Storm |
| Ellis County | Very Low | $5.7 million | Drought |
| Johnston County | Very Low | $5.5 million | Riverine Flood |
| Roger Mills County | Very Low | $4.8 million | Drought |
| Jefferson County | Very Low | $4.8 million | Drought |
| Greer County | Very Low | $4.5 million | Drought |
| Tillman County | Very Low | $4.4 million | Drought |
| Harmon County | Very Low | $3.3 million | Drought |
| Cotton County | Very Low | $2.9 million | Riverine Flood |
Oklahoma population, values and ratings
- Population
- 3,952,634
- Building value
- $714.19 billion
- Agricultural value
- $9.61 billion
- Modeled loss per resident
- $537
Overall county risk ratings
- Very Low: 28
- Relatively Low: 36
- Relatively Moderate: 11
- Relatively High: 2
Oklahoma overall ratings describe relative county risk. Segment widths count counties, rather than residents or modeled dollars.
View chart data
| Rating | Count |
|---|---|
| Very Low | 28 |
| Relatively Low | 36 |
| Relatively Moderate | 11 |
| Relatively High | 2 |
Oklahoma county pages
Oklahoma has 1 detailed county page linked below.
Questions about Oklahoma
Which Oklahoma county has the largest modeled loss?
Oklahoma County, OK leads Oklahoma, with about $297.5 million in modeled expected annual loss.
Which hazard leads modeled loss in Oklahoma?
Riverine flooding leads Oklahoma, at about $737.7 million annually.
What total loss does FEMA model for Oklahoma?
Oklahoma has about $2.12 billion in modeled expected annual loss.
What share of national loss belongs to Oklahoma?
The state accounts for 1.4% of national modeled loss.
How many counties appear in the Oklahoma table?
The Oklahoma table contains 77 counties and county equivalents.
Where does Oklahoma rank by modeled loss?
Oklahoma places #25 of 56 state-level entries by modeled expected annual loss.
Does the Oklahoma estimate predict next year?
The Oklahoma figure is a long-run modeled annual average, rather than a forecast for any single year.
Oklahoma county modeled expected annual loss, in five within-state quantile classes.