Fulton County, GA flood risk and natural hazards

Fulton County in the state and national rankings

Fulton County has about $234.6 million in modeled expected annual loss, ranking #111 of 3,232 nationally. A #2 of 159 state ranking accompanies its 7.0% share of the Georgia loss total. About $234.6 million is the modeled yearly average over the long run, rather than a one-year prediction. The next higher national total is about $237.4 million, in Baldwin County, AL. Douglas County, NE ranks immediately below it, with about $233.9 million in modeled annual loss. The nearest higher state total is about $276.7 million, recorded for Chatham County, GA. About $42.2 million separates those two estimates, and the other county’s state loss share is 8.3%. The next lower total within Georgia belongs to Gwinnett County, GA, at about $211.5 million. About $23.1 million separates those two estimates, and the other county’s state loss share is 6.3%.

Georgia county comparisons

Fulton County hazard estimates

Riverine Flood

For riverine flooding, about $164.3 million in expected annual loss puts the county #58 of 3,232 across the US. Its 70.0% share of total loss comes with a state loss rank of #1 of 159; FEMA assigns a Relatively High rating; the same rating for riverine flooding covers 4 Georgia counties and 186 across the US.

Earthquake

FEMA models about $22.1 million in expected annual loss from earthquakes, placing the county #120 of 3,232 nationally. At 9.4% of the county’s modeled loss, the hazard places #1 of 159 statewide; FEMA assigns a Relatively Moderate rating; the Relatively Moderate label covers 6 state counties and 250 nationally for earthquakes.

Tornado

For tornadoes, about $21.7 million in expected annual loss puts the county #81 of 3,225 across the US. Its 9.3% share of total loss comes with a state loss rank of #3 of 159; FEMA assigns a Relatively High rating, matching 272 US counties, including 13 in Georgia, for this hazard.

Cold Wave

The national loss rank for cold waves is #247 of 3,232, based on about $8.2 million in modeled expected annual loss. Its 3.5% share of total loss comes with a state loss rank of #4 of 159; FEMA assigns a Relatively High rating; the Relatively High label covers 6 state counties and 302 nationally for cold waves.

Heat Wave

The national loss rank for heat waves is #217 of 3,202, based on about $4.6 million in modeled expected annual loss. In Georgia, this estimate ranks #3 of 159 and represents 1.9% of the county’s modeled loss; FEMA assigns a Relatively Moderate rating; the Relatively Moderate label covers 14 state counties and 551 nationally for heat waves.

Hail

With about $4.1 million in modeled expected annual loss from hail, the county ranks #111 of 3,225 in the national comparison. At 1.7% of the county’s modeled loss, the hazard places #4 of 159 statewide; FEMA assigns a Relatively High rating; the Relatively High label covers 4 state counties and 166 nationally for hail.

The loss estimate for riverine flooding exceeds earthquakes by about $142.1 million, equivalent to 60.6 percentage points of total loss. For earthquakes, modeled loss is about $435,000 above tornadoes, leaving 0.2 percentage points between their county shares. About $13.5 million separates tornadoes from cold waves in the local estimates, equivalent to 5.8 percentage points of county loss. Between cold waves and heat waves, the modeled dollar gap is about $3.6 million; their shares differ by 1.5 percentage points. For heat waves, modeled loss is about $487,000 above hail, leaving 0.2 percentage points between their county shares.

Population and recorded values

FEMA counts 1,065,539 residents in Fulton County, across about 540 square miles. FEMA lists about $260.16 billion in building value. The recorded agricultural value is about $2.9 million. Total modeled loss averages about $220 per resident annually, compared with about $313 statewide. The county holds 10.0% of the state population, compared with 7.0% of modeled loss. Buildings account for 11.6% of recorded Georgia building value. Its population density ranks 5 within 159 Georgia counties that have both area and population estimates. The population-to-area ratio is about 1,974 residents per square mile; statewide it is about 178. The median county population in Georgia is about 22,744, compared with 1,065,539 locally. National modeled loss includes a 0.2% contribution from the county, whose residents make up 0.3% of the US source population. The county’s about $220 per resident compares with about $459 nationally in modeled annual loss. The six hazards described above together make up 95.9% of modeled loss, about $225.0 million annually. Other hazards account for the remaining 4.1% of modeled loss, about $9.6 million. About $3.9 million places lightning at number 7 in the local loss list and #2 of 159 within Georgia. Nationally, this estimate places #41 of 3,222; its share of the county’s modeled loss is 1.7%. In position 8 locally, strong wind has about $3.1 million in modeled annual loss, ranking #3 of 159 statewide. With 1.3% of county loss, this hazard has national placement #176 of 3,225.

FEMA labels and risk score

Fulton County has a FEMA risk index score of about 95.8, ranking #133 of 3,144 nationally. For risk index, FEMA assigns Relatively High; 4 counties in Georgia have that label. The expected annual loss rating is Relatively High, a label shared by 4 of 159 Georgia counties. Among 159 Georgia counties, 26 receive the same Very Low label for social vulnerability. FEMA labels community resilience as Relatively High, matching 15 county records across Georgia. Within Georgia, the risk score places #2 of 159 and the dollar loss places #2 of 159. Within Georgia, 8 counties share both labels: Very Low vulnerability and Relatively High resilience. This county accounts for 51.6% of that group’s annual loss, while the group accounts for 13.6% across Georgia. Chatham County, GA is next above it by state risk score, at about 97.4; that record ranks #1 of 159. FEMA gives that county a Relatively High risk index label, alongside 8.3% of the state loss total. On the state risk-score list, Gwinnett County, GA sits immediately below, scoring about 95.4 and ranking #3 of 159. FEMA gives that county a Relatively High risk index label, alongside 6.3% of the state loss total. Across the US, this social vulnerability category, Very Low, covers 23.7% of residents in 625 counties. Across the US, this community resilience category, Relatively High, covers 24.5% of residents in 629 counties. Across the county’s hazard ratings, 1 carry Very High: lightning. FEMA assigns Relatively High to 6 hazards here, covering cold waves, hail, ice storms, riverine flooding, strong wind, tornadoes. FEMA assigns Relatively Moderate to 4 hazards here, covering earthquakes, heat waves, landslides, winter weather. FEMA assigns Relatively Low to 1 hazard here, covering hurricanes. The county’s Very Low group contains 1 hazard: wildfires.