Massachusetts natural hazard risk by county
Massachusetts has about $1.48 billion in modeled expected annual loss across 14 counties. The state accounts for 1.0% of the national modeled loss total. Its total ranks #33 among 56 state-level entries by modeled loss. FEMA published these 14 county estimates in its December 2025 National Risk Index. The modeled $1.48 billion annual average does not predict loss in any one year.
- Modeled expected annual loss
- $1.48 billion / year
- Share of US loss
- 1.0%
- State loss rank
- #33 of 56
- Largest modeled-loss hazard
- Riverine Flood
Massachusetts county modeled loss
- Positive estimates to $22.9 million
- Above $22.9 million to $82.3 million
- Above $82.3 million to $114.3 million
- Above $114.3 million to $162.8 million
- Above $162.8 million to $321.9 million
- No FEMA estimate
Massachusetts counties use five within-state quantile classes of modeled expected annual loss. Darker rust means a larger estimate; outlined counties have detailed pages.
View chart data
| County | Modeled expected annual loss (USD/year) | Overall risk rating |
|---|---|---|
| Suffolk County, MA | 114,876,837.32 | Relatively Moderate |
| Franklin County, MA | 22,873,942.12 | Relatively Low |
| Plymouth County, MA | 114,312,979.92 | Relatively Moderate |
| Berkshire County, MA | 51,762,097.57 | Relatively Moderate |
| Bristol County, MA | 87,250,205.10 | Relatively Moderate |
| Norfolk County, MA | 146,917,420.01 | Relatively Moderate |
| Nantucket County, MA | 22,876,666.32 | Very Low |
| Hampden County, MA | 106,696,440.68 | Relatively Moderate |
| Essex County, MA | 198,806,032.81 | Relatively High |
| Worcester County, MA | 162,813,485.34 | Relatively Moderate |
| Hampshire County, MA | 37,274,376.11 | Relatively Low |
| Dukes County, MA | 7,301,175.29 | Very Low |
| Barnstable County, MA | 82,336,784.79 | Relatively Moderate |
| Middlesex County, MA | 321,947,814.05 | Relatively High |
Reading the Massachusetts county map
The map groups 14 county estimates into five within-state loss classes. Each boundary follows the county geography, while the fill represents modeled dollars per year. The class breaks are calculated from Massachusetts county values, so a matching shade on another state page need not represent the same amount. Grey marks unmatched geography or an unavailable estimate. Outlined counties link to the detailed profiles available in this release; counties without profiles still contribute to the state totals.
Together, the three largest estimates account for 46.2% of Massachusetts modeled annual loss. Their combined population represents 47.0% of the state source population. Comparing these two shares helps distinguish the concentration of modeled dollars from the concentration of residents. Neither share identifies the exposure of an individual address, and the map does not show the location of damage within a county.
Ten largest county loss estimates
Middlesex County, MA has the largest modeled expected annual loss in this comparison, about $321.9 million.
View chart data
| Place | USD / year |
|---|---|
| Middlesex County, MA | 321,947,814.05 |
| Essex County, MA | 198,806,032.81 |
| Worcester County, MA | 162,813,485.34 |
| Norfolk County, MA | 146,917,420.01 |
| Suffolk County, MA | 114,876,837.32 |
| Plymouth County, MA | 114,312,979.92 |
| Hampden County, MA | 106,696,440.68 |
| Bristol County, MA | 87,250,205.10 |
| Barnstable County, MA | 82,336,784.79 |
| Berkshire County, MA | 51,762,097.57 |
County totals beside population
Middlesex County, MA combines about $321.9 million in modeled annual loss with 1,629,857 recorded residents. Dividing those figures gives about $198 per resident, compared with $210 statewide. On this population-adjusted measure, the county places #11 among the 14 state county records. This ratio spreads all modeled losses across residents for comparison; it is not a household bill, an insurance premium or an estimate of personal damage.
Essex County, MA combines about $198.8 million in modeled annual loss with 808,897 recorded residents. Dividing those figures gives about $246 per resident, compared with $210 statewide. On this population-adjusted measure, the county places #6 among the 14 state county records. This ratio spreads all modeled losses across residents for comparison; it is not a household bill, an insurance premium or an estimate of personal damage.
State hazard loss mix
Riverine Flood leads the modeled expected annual loss mix; bar lengths share a zero baseline.
View chart data
| Hazard | USD / year | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Riverine Flood | 943,471,762.97 | 63.8% |
| Hurricane | 192,792,069.86 | 13.0% |
| Earthquake | 83,246,010.61 | 5.6% |
| Coastal Flood | 60,955,908.76 | 4.1% |
| Cold Wave | 49,129,131.01 | 3.3% |
| Tornado | 40,329,795.49 | 2.7% |
| Other | 108,120,274.54 | 7.3% |
Worcester County, MA combines about $162.8 million in modeled annual loss with 861,566 recorded residents. Dividing those figures gives about $189 per resident, compared with $210 statewide. On this population-adjusted measure, the county places #12 among the 14 state county records. This ratio spreads all modeled losses across residents for comparison; it is not a household bill, an insurance premium or an estimate of personal damage.
Where the leading hazards are concentrated
For riverine flooding, Middlesex County, MA contributes 23.8% of the state hazard total. The next county, Essex County, MA, contributes about $124.6 million annually, compared with $224.4 million for the leader. Across Massachusetts, 14 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $594.4 million after those two leading estimates. The state places #23 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 63.8%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.
County hazard rating counts
- Very Low
- Relatively Low
- Relatively Moderate
- Relatively High
- Very High
- No rating
Massachusetts has 14 county records in each row. Each bar shows the FEMA risk rating distribution for one of the three largest modeled-loss hazards.
View chart data
| Hazard | Rating | Count |
|---|---|---|
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 2 |
| Riverine Flood | Relatively Low | 0 |
| Riverine Flood | Relatively Moderate | 5 |
| Riverine Flood | Relatively High | 7 |
| Riverine Flood | Very High | 0 |
| Riverine Flood | No rating | 0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0 |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 2 |
| Hurricane | Relatively Moderate | 6 |
| Hurricane | Relatively High | 6 |
| Hurricane | Very High | 0 |
| Hurricane | No rating | 0 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 3 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Low | 6 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 5 |
| Earthquake | Relatively High | 0 |
| Earthquake | Very High | 0 |
| Earthquake | No rating | 0 |
For hurricanes, Worcester County, MA contributes 19.3% of the state hazard total. The next county, Middlesex County, MA, contributes about $30.1 million annually, compared with $37.2 million for the leader. Across Massachusetts, 14 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $125.5 million after those two leading estimates. The state places #12 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 13.0%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.
For earthquakes, Middlesex County, MA contributes 29.1% of the state hazard total. The next county, Essex County, MA, contributes about $14.7 million annually, compared with $24.3 million for the leader. Across Massachusetts, 14 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $44.3 million after those two leading estimates. The state places #26 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 5.6%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.
For coastal flooding, Essex County, MA contributes 31.5% of the state hazard total. The next county, Plymouth County, MA, contributes about $14.3 million annually, compared with $19.2 million for the leader. Across Massachusetts, 9 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $27.4 million after those two leading estimates. The state places #6 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 4.1%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.
For cold waves, Worcester County, MA contributes 20.2% of the state hazard total. The next county, Middlesex County, MA, contributes about $9.1 million annually, compared with $9.9 million for the leader. Across Massachusetts, 14 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $30.2 million after those two leading estimates. The state places #37 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 3.3%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.
For tornadoes, Essex County, MA contributes 23.0% of the state hazard total. The next county, Middlesex County, MA, contributes about $9.0 million annually, compared with $9.3 million for the leader. Across Massachusetts, 14 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $22.1 million after those two leading estimates. The state places #32 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 2.7%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.
Massachusetts hazard totals and county comparisons
| Hazard | Modeled annual loss | State share | VH / RH counties | Largest county | US state rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riverine Flood | $943.5 million | 63.8% | 0 / 7 | Middlesex County, MA | #23 of 56 |
| Hurricane | $192.8 million | 13.0% | 0 / 6 | Worcester County, MA | #12 of 56 |
| Earthquake | $83.2 million | 5.6% | 0 / 0 | Middlesex County, MA | #26 of 56 |
| Coastal Flood | $61.0 million | 4.1% | 3 / 2 | Essex County, MA | #6 of 56 |
| Cold Wave | $49.1 million | 3.3% | 0 / 3 | Worcester County, MA | #37 of 56 |
| Tornado | $40.3 million | 2.7% | 0 / 1 | Essex County, MA | #32 of 56 |
| Heat Wave | $38.2 million | 2.6% | 0 / 1 | Suffolk County, MA | #33 of 56 |
| Strong Wind | $22.5 million | 1.5% | 0 / 6 | Worcester County, MA | #31 of 56 |
| Ice Storm | $19.6 million | 1.3% | 3 / 4 | Middlesex County, MA | #18 of 56 |
| Lightning | $15.5 million | 1.0% | 1 / 6 | Middlesex County, MA | #35 of 56 |
| Drought | $6.2 million | 0.4% | 0 / 0 | Essex County, MA | #29 of 56 |
| Hail | $4.1 million | 0.3% | 0 / 0 | Worcester County, MA | #41 of 56 |
| Winter Weather | $1.0 million | 0.1% | 0 / 0 | Hampden County, MA | #47 of 56 |
| Wildfire | $795,000 | 0.1% | 0 / 0 | Middlesex County, MA | #42 of 56 |
| Landslide | $191,000 | 0.0% | 0 / 0 | Worcester County, MA | #39 of 56 |
| Avalanche | $3,000 | 0.0% | 0 / 0 | Berkshire County, MA | #21 of 56 |
Hazard shares show which modeled expected annual losses dominate the state total; ranks compare state totals for the same hazard.
Massachusetts hazard totals combine the county estimates. The largest county column identifies concentration within each hazard; the state rank compares the same hazard across state-level entries.
Massachusetts county loss totals
| County | Risk index rating | Modeled annual loss | Largest hazard |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesex County | Relatively High | $321.9 million | Riverine Flood |
| Essex County | Relatively High | $198.8 million | Riverine Flood |
| Worcester County | Relatively Moderate | $162.8 million | Riverine Flood |
| Norfolk County | Relatively Moderate | $146.9 million | Riverine Flood |
| Suffolk County | Relatively Moderate | $114.9 million | Riverine Flood |
| Plymouth County | Relatively Moderate | $114.3 million | Riverine Flood |
| Hampden County | Relatively Moderate | $106.7 million | Riverine Flood |
| Bristol County | Relatively Moderate | $87.3 million | Riverine Flood |
| Barnstable County | Relatively Moderate | $82.3 million | Riverine Flood |
| Berkshire County | Relatively Moderate | $51.8 million | Riverine Flood |
| Hampshire County | Relatively Low | $37.3 million | Riverine Flood |
| Nantucket County | Very Low | $22.9 million | Hurricane |
| Franklin County | Relatively Low | $22.9 million | Riverine Flood |
| Dukes County | Very Low | $7.3 million | Riverine Flood |
Massachusetts population, values and ratings
- Population
- 7,021,936
- Building value
- $1,430.71 billion
- Agricultural value
- $611.8 million
- Modeled loss per resident
- $210
Overall county risk ratings
- Very Low: 2
- Relatively Low: 2
- Relatively Moderate: 8
- Relatively High: 2
Massachusetts overall ratings describe relative county risk. Segment widths count counties, rather than residents or modeled dollars.
View chart data
| Rating | Count |
|---|---|
| Very Low | 2 |
| Relatively Low | 2 |
| Relatively Moderate | 8 |
| Relatively High | 2 |
Massachusetts county pages
Massachusetts has 1 detailed county page linked below.
Questions about Massachusetts
Which Massachusetts county has the largest modeled loss?
Middlesex County, MA leads Massachusetts, with about $321.9 million in modeled expected annual loss.
Which hazard leads modeled loss in Massachusetts?
Riverine flooding leads Massachusetts, at about $943.5 million annually.
What total loss does FEMA model for Massachusetts?
Massachusetts has about $1.48 billion in modeled expected annual loss.
What share of national loss belongs to Massachusetts?
The state accounts for 1.0% of national modeled loss.
How many counties appear in the Massachusetts table?
The Massachusetts table contains 14 counties and county equivalents.
Where does Massachusetts rank by modeled loss?
Massachusetts places #33 of 56 state-level entries by modeled expected annual loss.
Does the Massachusetts estimate predict next year?
The Massachusetts figure is a long-run modeled annual average, rather than a forecast for any single year.
Massachusetts county modeled expected annual loss, in five within-state quantile classes.