Minnesota natural hazard risk by county

Minnesota has about $2.58 billion in modeled expected annual loss across 87 counties. The state accounts for 1.7% of the national modeled loss total. Its total ranks #20 among 56 state-level entries by modeled loss. FEMA published these 87 county estimates in its December 2025 National Risk Index. The modeled $2.58 billion annual average does not predict loss in any one year.

Modeled expected annual loss

$2.58 billion / year

Share of US loss

1.7%

State loss rank

#20 of 56

Largest modeled-loss hazard

Riverine Flood

Reading the Minnesota county map

The map groups 87 county estimates into five within-state loss classes. Each boundary follows the county geography, while the fill represents modeled dollars per year. The class breaks are calculated from Minnesota county values, so a matching shade on another state page need not represent the same amount. Grey marks unmatched geography or an unavailable estimate. Outlined counties link to the detailed profiles available in this release; counties without profiles still contribute to the state totals.

Together, the three largest estimates account for 29.9% of Minnesota modeled annual loss. Their combined population represents 39.9% of the state source population. Comparing these two shares helps distinguish the concentration of modeled dollars from the concentration of residents. Neither share identifies the exposure of an individual address, and the map does not show the location of damage within a county.

County totals beside population

Hennepin County, MN combines about $456.4 million in modeled annual loss with 1,281,172 recorded residents. Dividing those figures gives about $356 per resident, compared with $453 statewide. On this population-adjusted measure, the county places #81 among the 87 state county records. This ratio spreads all modeled losses across residents for comparison; it is not a household bill, an insurance premium or an estimate of personal damage.

Ramsey County, MN combines about $181.4 million in modeled annual loss with 552,246 recorded residents. Dividing those figures gives about $329 per resident, compared with $453 statewide. On this population-adjusted measure, the county places #85 among the 87 state county records. This ratio spreads all modeled losses across residents for comparison; it is not a household bill, an insurance premium or an estimate of personal damage.

Dakota County, MN combines about $133.7 million in modeled annual loss with 439,810 recorded residents. Dividing those figures gives about $304 per resident, compared with $453 statewide. On this population-adjusted measure, the county places #87 among the 87 state county records. This ratio spreads all modeled losses across residents for comparison; it is not a household bill, an insurance premium or an estimate of personal damage.

Where the leading hazards are concentrated

For riverine flooding, Hennepin County, MN contributes 14.8% of the state hazard total. The next county, Anoka County, MN, contributes about $85.4 million annually, compared with $188.4 million for the leader. Across Minnesota, 87 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $1.00 billion after those two leading estimates. The state places #15 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 49.4%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.

For cold waves, Hennepin County, MN contributes 21.6% of the state hazard total. The next county, St. Louis County, MN, contributes about $50.6 million annually, compared with $101.9 million for the leader. Across Minnesota, 87 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $318.1 million after those two leading estimates. The state places #4 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 18.2%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.

For tornadoes, Hennepin County, MN contributes 23.8% of the state hazard total. The next county, Ramsey County, MN, contributes about $36.2 million annually, compared with $83.0 million for the leader. Across Minnesota, 87 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $228.9 million after those two leading estimates. The state places #13 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 13.5%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.

For strong wind, Dakota County, MN contributes 12.2% of the state hazard total. The next county, Scott County, MN, contributes about $12.8 million annually, compared with $18.8 million for the leader. Across Minnesota, 87 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $122.6 million after those two leading estimates. The state places #5 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 6.0%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.

For hail, Hennepin County, MN contributes 24.4% of the state hazard total. The next county, Ramsey County, MN, contributes about $11.6 million annually, compared with $31.2 million for the leader. Across Minnesota, 87 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $85.3 million after those two leading estimates. The state places #7 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 5.0%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.

For heat waves, Hennepin County, MN contributes 38.1% of the state hazard total. The next county, Ramsey County, MN, contributes about $16.9 million annually, compared with $39.3 million for the leader. Across Minnesota, 87 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $47.0 million after those two leading estimates. The state places #17 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 4.0%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.

Minnesota hazard totals and county comparisons

Minnesota hazard totals combine the county estimates. The largest county column identifies concentration within each hazard; the state rank compares the same hazard across state-level entries.

Minnesota county loss totals

Minnesota population, values and ratings

Population

5,703,552

Building value

$1,478.59 billion

Agricultural value

$23.69 billion

Modeled loss per resident

$453

Minnesota county pages

Minnesota has 1 detailed county page linked below.

• Hennepin County, MN: county detail

US county comparisons alongside Minnesota