Hennepin County, MN flood risk and hazards
FEMA rates tornado risk as Very High in Hennepin County, MN. Modeled losses from natural hazards (expected annual loss) average about $456 million a year, for a population of 1,281,172. These county figures come from the FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025 release. Observation windows vary by metric and sit beside the tables below.
- Modeled expected annual loss
- $456.4 million / year
- US loss rank
- #36 of 3,232
- State loss rank
- #1 of 87
- Loss per resident
- $356 · state $453 · US $459
- FEMA overall risk rating
- Relatively High
Minnesota county modeled loss
- Positive estimates to $7.8 million
- Above $7.8 million to $11.5 million
- Above $11.5 million to $17.5 million
- Above $17.5 million to $31.4 million
- Above $31.4 million to $456.4 million
- No FEMA estimate
Hennepin County, MN ranks #1 of 87 in the state for modeled expected annual loss; the outline locates it.
View chart data
Is Hennepin County at risk of flooding?
FEMA labels riverine flooding Relatively High and coastal flooding Not Applicable. Modeled annual riverine flood loss is $188,376,120; coastal flood loss is Not Applicable. These are separate hazards and county totals. A rating describes relative county risk. It does not locate water at a building or establish a flood zone. Read missing statuses using the source documentation. Keep both source labels when comparing counties. Read the county rating versus flood-zone guide before requesting a location check.
Look up an address and its flood zone through FEMA’s Flood Map Service Center.
The local hazard planning document is Hennepin County All-Jurisdiction Hazard Mitigation Plan. Local governments use this plan to set out hazards and proposed projects.
What natural hazards affect Hennepin County most?
Show tabular data
| County | Modeled expected annual loss (USD/year) | Overall risk rating |
|---|---|---|
| Hennepin County, MN | 456,424,881.62 | Relatively High |
Show tabular data
| Hazard | Source label | Observation window |
|---|---|---|
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | 1996-2023 |
| Riverine flooding | Relatively High | 1996-2023 |
| Hurricane | Not Applicable | 1851-2024 |
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 1996-2023 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 1996-2023 |
| Tornado | Very High | 1950-2023 |
| Heat wave | Relatively High | 2005-2024 |
How have heat and rain changed in Hennepin County?
Hot days
Hot days increased between the two decades.
View chart data
| Place | Days / year |
|---|---|
| 1991–2000 | 0.10 |
| 2016–2025 | 1.40 |
Warm nights
Warm nights increased between the two decades.
View chart data
| Place | Days / year |
|---|---|
| 1991–2000 | 0.00 |
| 2016–2025 | 0.30 |
Heavy-precipitation days
Heavy-precipitation days increased between the two decades.
View chart data
| Place | Days / year |
|---|---|
| 1991–2000 | 0.20 |
| 2016–2025 | 0.60 |
Humid-heat days
Humid-heat days increased between the two decades.
View chart data
| Place | Days / year |
|---|---|
| 1991–2000 | 0.80 |
| 2016–2025 | 1.20 |
| Measure | 1991–2000 | 2016–2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days · ≥35°C (95°F) | 0.1 | 1.4 | +1.3 |
| Humid-heat days · heat index ≥103°F (39.4°C) | 0.8 | 1.2 | +0.4 |
| Warm nights · ≥24°C (75.2°F) | 0.0 | 0.3 | +0.3 |
| Heavy-rain days · ≥50 mm (≈2 in) | 0.2 | 0.6 | +0.4 |
| Annual maximum daily precipitation · mm | 41.5 | 48.9 | +7.4 |
Counts are days per year; a grid-cell zero does not mean the county had no such events. Thresholds, time bases and limits: county climate method.
Methodology & sensor cross-check notes
Hot-day cross-check: NOAA’s county-average daily maximum temperature gives 0.2 → 1.3 hot days a year (+1.1); NASA gives 0.1 → 1.4 (+1.3). Both series show an increase, with different counts and change sizes. The footprints differ, so agreement does not validate either count. Warm nights and precipitation were not cross-checked. Humid-heat row: Copernicus (ECMWF) reanalysis. It uses a different regional grid from the NASA measures.
No statistical significance, cause or future trend is established; this does not change the FEMA ratings above.
Climate data: NASA · Population context: US Census Bureau · Hot-day cross-check: NOAA county climate records · Humid heat: Copernicus (ECMWF). Method, sources and limitations · Climate JSON · Data credits.
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direction"}}How does El Niño affect Hennepin County winters?
Strong El Niño winter precipitation
6 of 9 strong El Niño winters were wetter than normal. The vertical line marks 100% of normal precipitation.
View chart data
| Winter | Precipitation (% of normal) |
|---|---|
| 1957–58 | 26.675 |
| 1965–66 | 158.776 |
| 1972–73 | 115.510 |
| 1982–83 | 155.215 |
| 1991–92 | 72.489 |
| 1997–98 | 85.581 |
| 2009–10 | 119.101 |
| 2015–16 | 116.047 |
| 2023–24 | 113.699 |
NOAA and IRI both give 100% odds that El Niño conditions (tropical Pacific ONI of at least 0.5°C, not a local weather forecast) are present this winter. In Hennepin County, 6 of 9 past strong El Niño winters were wetter than normal; the median winter had 116% of normal precipitation (rain and melted snow). The driest, 1957–58, had 27%.
| Winter | ONI | Precipitation | Temp. | Heavy days | Claims |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1957–58 | 1.7 | 27% | +4.9°F | 0 | — |
| 1965–66 | 1.6 | 159% | −0.7°F | 0 | — |
| 1972–73 | 1.8 | 116% | +0.3°F | 0 | — |
| 1982–83 | 2.1 | 155% | +6.1°F | 2 | 0 |
| 1991–92 | 1.5 | 72% | +5.7°F | 0 | 0 |
| 1997–98 | 2.4 | 86% | +8.0°F | 0 | 0 |
| 2009–10 | 1.5 | 119% | −2.6°F | 0 | 0 |
| 2015–16 | 2.6 | 116% | +4.6°F | 0 | 0 |
| 2023–24 | 2.0 | 114% | +9.0°F | 0 | 0 |
Winter normals and temperature baseline
Hennepin County normals, 1990–91 to 2019–20 winters: 2.6 inches of precipitation (rain and melted snow) and 0.1 heavy days. Temperature is set against the county’s own winter trend of +0.8°F per decade since 1951–52.
Flood claims: December–February, from 1978 (— = before the data). The rank compares each winter with all 47 winters from 1978–79 to 2024–25 (#1 is the most claims; no rank is shown for 0 claims). The median winter had 0 claims; 0 of 6 strong winters in the data were above it. Insured exposure grew over time, so counts are not comparable across decades.
Past tendency is not a forecast and not a property-level finding. Before winter: four checks for property teams.
Sources: NOAA county climate records and Pacific climate assessments; FEMA National Flood Insurance Program claims. Method and limits · El Niño 2026–27.
What are the modeled losses by hazard?
From 1991–2000 to 2016–2025, hot days near Hennepin County changed from 0.1 to 1.4 per year. Heavy-rain days changed from 0.2 to 0.6. The table retains humid heat, warm nights and maximum daily rain. Compare the periods alongside the source notes. These decade means describe past conditions; they do not predict a future year or establish a trend.
Hennepin County’s modeled loss across all hazards is $456,424,882 per year. The FEMA National Risk Index ranks the hazards below by modeled loss, not rating category.
Show tabular data
| Hazard | Total loss ($/yr) | Of which buildings ($/yr) | Observation window |
|---|---|---|---|
| All hazards (composite) | $456,424,882 | $267,494,527 | 1996-2023 |
| Riverine flooding | $188,376,120 | $188,244,797 | 1996-2023 |
| Tornado | $82,990,111 | $39,942,377 | 1950-2023 |
| Heat wave | $39,286,367 | Not published | 2005-2024 |
| Earthquake | $325,256 | $244,017 | 1996-2023 |
| Wildfire | $309,091 | $281,131 | 1996-2023 |
| Coastal flooding | Not available | Not available | 1996-2023 |
| Hurricane | Not available | Not available | 1851-2024 |
These modeled county totals do not estimate property losses, insurance inputs or forecasts. Do not multiply them by location counts.
Reuse this chart
What is exposed in Hennepin County?
Population and asset values show the scale behind county losses. These county totals are exposure measures, not loss figures.
Show tabular data
| Measure | Value | Observation window |
|---|---|---|
| Resident population | 1,281,172 | 2020-2020 |
| Building replacement value | $298,592,651,609 | 2020-2020 |
| Agricultural market value | $75,400,447 | 2022-2022 |
What do vulnerability and resilience show?
These relative rankings describe susceptibility to hazard impacts and capacity to recover. They measure no individual asset or outcome.
Show tabular data
| Measure | Score | Observation window |
|---|---|---|
| Social vulnerability index | 20.3 | 2020-2020 |
| Community resilience index | 98.1 | 2020-2020 |
Hennepin County in the state and national rankings
National placement for Hennepin County is #36 of 3,232, with an expected annual loss estimate of about $456.4 million. Its share of Minnesota modeled loss is 17.7%, with a state rank of #1 of 87. About $456.4 million is the modeled yearly average over the long run, rather than a one-year prediction. The next higher national total is about $477.3 million, in Santa Barbara County, CA. The next lower national total is about $440.4 million, in Multnomah County, OR. The nearest lower state total is about $181.4 million, recorded for Ramsey County, MN. Its 7.0% state loss share accompanies an estimate about $275.0 million away from this county’s total.
County hazard loss mix
Riverine Flood leads the modeled expected annual loss mix; bar lengths share a zero baseline.
View chart data
| Hazard | USD / year | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Riverine Flood | 188,376,119.80 | 41.3% |
| Cold Wave | 101,865,177.46 | 22.3% |
| Tornado | 82,990,110.78 | 18.2% |
| Heat Wave | 39,286,367.37 | 8.6% |
| Hail | 31,239,650.36 | 6.8% |
| Strong Wind | 8,693,088.84 | 1.9% |
| Other | 3,974,367.02 | 0.9% |
National hazard loss ranks
Riverine Flood ranks #43 of 3,232 by modeled expected annual loss. Higher percentiles mean larger modeled losses.
View chart data
| Hazard | Rank | Percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Riverine Flood | #43 of 3,232 US · #1 of 87 in MN | 98.70 |
| Cold Wave | #4 of 3,232 US · #1 of 87 in MN | 99.91 |
| Tornado | #10 of 3,225 US · #1 of 87 in MN | 99.72 |
| Heat Wave | #21 of 3,202 US · #1 of 87 in MN | 99.38 |
| Hail | #12 of 3,225 US · #1 of 87 in MN | 99.66 |
| Strong Wind | #37 of 3,225 US · #5 of 87 in MN | 98.88 |
Modeled loss per resident
Hennepin has about $356 in modeled expected annual loss per resident. State and US values divide total loss by total population.
View chart data
| Place | USD / resident / year |
|---|---|
| Hennepin | 356.26 |
| Minnesota | 452.64 |
| US | 459.35 |
Hennepin County hazard estimates
Riverine Flood
With about $188.4 million in modeled expected annual loss from riverine flooding, the county ranks #43 of 3,232 in the national comparison. Its 41.3% share of total loss comes with a state loss rank of #1 of 87; FEMA assigns a Relatively High rating, matching 186 US counties, including 2 in Minnesota, for this hazard.
Cold Wave
With about $101.9 million in modeled expected annual loss from cold waves, the county ranks #4 of 3,232 in the national comparison. This hazard makes up 22.3% of the total; FEMA assigns a Very High rating, and its loss ranks #1 of 87 in Minnesota; the same rating for cold waves covers 3 Minnesota counties and 39 across the US.
Tornado
FEMA models about $83.0 million in expected annual loss from tornadoes, placing the county #10 of 3,225 nationally. Its 18.2% share of total loss comes with a state loss rank of #1 of 87; FEMA assigns a Very High rating; the same rating for tornadoes covers 1 Minnesota county and 37 across the US.
Heat Wave
FEMA models about $39.3 million in expected annual loss from heat waves, placing the county #21 of 3,202 nationally. At 8.6% of the county’s modeled loss, the hazard places #1 of 87 statewide; FEMA assigns a Relatively High rating; for heat waves, 2 state counties and 98 US counties share that label.
Hail
The national loss rank for hail is #12 of 3,225, based on about $31.2 million in modeled expected annual loss. In Minnesota, this estimate ranks #1 of 87 and represents 6.8% of the county’s modeled loss; FEMA assigns a Very High rating; for hail, 1 state county and 25 US counties share that label.
Strong Wind
FEMA models about $8.7 million in expected annual loss from strong wind, placing the county #37 of 3,225 nationally. Its 1.9% share of total loss comes with a state loss rank of #5 of 87; FEMA assigns a Very High rating; the same rating for strong wind covers 5 Minnesota counties and 63 across the US.
The loss estimate for riverine flooding exceeds cold waves by about $86.5 million, equivalent to 19.0 percentage points of total loss. The loss estimate for cold waves exceeds tornadoes by about $18.9 million, equivalent to 4.1 percentage points of total loss. The loss estimate for tornadoes exceeds heat waves by about $43.7 million, equivalent to 9.6 percentage points of total loss. For heat waves, modeled loss is about $8.0 million above hail, leaving 1.8 percentage points between their county shares. About $22.5 million separates hail from strong wind in the local estimates, equivalent to 4.9 percentage points of county loss.
Population and recorded values
FEMA counts 1,281,172 residents in Hennepin County, across about 613 square miles. The recorded building value is about $298.59 billion. FEMA lists about $75.4 million in agricultural value. Total modeled loss averages about $356 per resident annually, compared with about $453 statewide. Its 22.5% share of state residents sits alongside 17.7% of of annual loss. The county contains 20.2% of the building value recorded across Minnesota. The county holds density position 2 of 87 in Minnesota, using FEMA’s recorded population and area. Those recorded totals give about 2,090 residents per square mile, versus about 65 across Minnesota. The median county population in Minnesota is about 22,270, compared with 1,281,172 locally. National modeled loss includes a 0.3% contribution from the county, whose residents make up 0.4% of the US source population. Using the national population gives about $459 in modeled annual loss per person, versus about $356 here. About $452.5 million of annual loss falls within the six leading hazards, accounting for 99.1% of the total. The balance outside those six estimates is about $4.0 million, or 0.9% of total loss. About $1.5 million places lightning at number 7 in the local loss list and #5 of 87 within Minnesota. This 0.3% slice of county loss ranks #239 of 3,222 across US counties. The county’s number 8 hazard by dollar loss is winter weather: about $1.3 million, with a state rank of #2 of 87. With 0.3% of county loss, this hazard has national placement #72 of 3,230.
FEMA labels and risk score
Hennepin County has a FEMA risk index score of about 98.3, ranking #54 of 3,144 nationally. Among 87 Minnesota counties, 2 receive the same Relatively High label for risk index. FEMA labels expected annual loss as Relatively High, matching 1 county records across Minnesota. For social vulnerability, FEMA assigns Relatively Low; 31 counties in Minnesota have that label. Among 87 Minnesota counties, 65 receive the same Very High label for community resilience. Its risk score ranks #1 of 87 within Minnesota, while its loss total ranks #1 of 87. Within Minnesota, 23 counties share both labels: Relatively Low vulnerability and Very High resilience. The group represents 47.1% of statewide loss; this county supplies 37.5% of the group’s modeled amount. With a score of about 94.6, Ramsey County, MN ranks #2 of 87 statewide, immediately below this county. Its share of statewide modeled loss is 7.0%; FEMA’s risk index label there is Relatively High. Across the US, this social vulnerability category, Relatively Low, covers 30.0% of residents in 632 counties. Nationally, 629 counties carry the same Very High community resilience label, covering 27.2% of FEMA’s recorded population. Across the county’s hazard ratings, 5 carry Very High: cold waves, hail, strong wind, tornadoes, winter weather. Across the county’s hazard ratings, 3 carry Relatively High: heat waves, lightning, riverine flooding. The local Relatively Moderate hazard group contains 1 entries: ice storms. Across the county’s hazard ratings, 3 carry Relatively Low: drought, landslides, wildfires. FEMA assigns Very Low to 1 hazard here, covering earthquakes.
What else should I know about Hennepin County?
What annual loss does FEMA model for Hennepin County?
Hennepin County has about $456.4 million in modeled expected annual loss, a long-run average rather than a yearly forecast.
What share of state loss belongs to Hennepin County?
Hennepin County accounts for 17.7% of Minnesota modeled expected annual loss.
What is the FEMA risk index rating for Hennepin County?
FEMA assigns Hennepin County a Relatively High risk index rating.
What does FEMA estimate for earthquakes in Hennepin County?
Hennepin County has about $325,000 in modeled expected annual loss from earthquakes, with a Very Low rating.
How often were strong El Niño winters wetter in Hennepin County?
Hennepin County was wetter than normal in 6 of 9 strong El Niño winters.
What does FEMA estimate for riverine flooding in Hennepin County?
For riverine flooding, FEMA lists Hennepin County at Relatively High, with about $188.4 million in modeled expected annual loss.
What is the FEMA social vulnerability rating for Hennepin County?
FEMA assigns Hennepin County a Relatively Low social vulnerability rating.
Where next for Hennepin County?
See how the county compares across the state in Minnesota natural hazard risk by county, download the FEMA county hazard data, or review the county climate risk data API and bulk files. Check the sources and what each measure can show on the methodology page.