Tennessee natural hazard risk by county

Tennessee has about $3.00 billion in modeled expected annual loss across 95 counties. The state accounts for 2.0% of the national modeled loss total. Its total ranks #16 among 56 state-level entries by modeled loss. FEMA published these 95 county estimates in its December 2025 National Risk Index. The modeled $3.00 billion annual average does not predict loss in any one year.

Modeled expected annual loss

$3.00 billion / year

Share of US loss

2.0%

State loss rank

#16 of 56

Largest modeled-loss hazard

Riverine Flood

Reading the Tennessee county map

The map groups 95 county estimates into five within-state loss classes. Each boundary follows the county geography, while the fill represents modeled dollars per year. The class breaks are calculated from Tennessee county values, so a matching shade on another state page need not represent the same amount. Grey marks unmatched geography or an unavailable estimate. Outlined counties link to the detailed profiles available in this release; counties without profiles still contribute to the state totals.

Together, the three largest estimates account for 31.9% of Tennessee modeled annual loss. Their combined population represents 29.1% of the state source population. Comparing these two shares helps distinguish the concentration of modeled dollars from the concentration of residents. Neither share identifies the exposure of an individual address, and the map does not show the location of damage within a county.

County totals beside population

Shelby County, TN combines about $554.7 million in modeled annual loss with 929,552 recorded residents. Dividing those figures gives about $597 per resident, compared with $435 statewide. On this population-adjusted measure, the county places #24 among the 95 state county records. This ratio spreads all modeled losses across residents for comparison; it is not a household bill, an insurance premium or an estimate of personal damage.

Davidson County, TN combines about $262.4 million in modeled annual loss with 715,485 recorded residents. Dividing those figures gives about $367 per resident, compared with $435 statewide. On this population-adjusted measure, the county places #63 among the 95 state county records. This ratio spreads all modeled losses across residents for comparison; it is not a household bill, an insurance premium or an estimate of personal damage.

Hamilton County, TN combines about $140.1 million in modeled annual loss with 365,901 recorded residents. Dividing those figures gives about $383 per resident, compared with $435 statewide. On this population-adjusted measure, the county places #60 among the 95 state county records. This ratio spreads all modeled losses across residents for comparison; it is not a household bill, an insurance premium or an estimate of personal damage.

Where the leading hazards are concentrated

For riverine flooding, Davidson County, TN contributes 13.6% of the state hazard total. The next county, Shelby County, TN, contributes about $153.7 million annually, compared with $160.3 million for the leader. Across Tennessee, 95 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $867.4 million after those two leading estimates. The state places #18 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 39.3%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.

For earthquakes, Shelby County, TN contributes 28.9% of the state hazard total. The next county, Davidson County, TN, contributes about $57.9 million annually, compared with $215.2 million for the leader. Across Tennessee, 95 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $472.7 million after those two leading estimates. The state places #6 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 24.8%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.

For tornadoes, Shelby County, TN contributes 16.6% of the state hazard total. The next county, Hamilton County, TN, contributes about $31.6 million annually, compared with $70.1 million for the leader. Across Tennessee, 95 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $321.8 million after those two leading estimates. The state places #8 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 14.1%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.

For cold waves, Shelby County, TN contributes 17.6% of the state hazard total. The next county, Rutherford County, TN, contributes about $24.9 million annually, compared with $62.2 million for the leader. Across Tennessee, 95 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $267.4 million after those two leading estimates. The state places #6 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 11.8%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.

For heat waves, Shelby County, TN contributes 51.2% of the state hazard total. The next county, Davidson County, TN, contributes about $6.5 million annually, compared with $48.6 million for the leader. Across Tennessee, 94 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $39.7 million after those two leading estimates. The state places #20 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 3.2%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.

For strong wind, Hamilton County, TN contributes 5.5% of the state hazard total. The next county, Davidson County, TN, contributes about $4.0 million annually, compared with $4.6 million for the leader. Across Tennessee, 95 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $75.6 million after those two leading estimates. The state places #17 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 2.8%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.

Tennessee hazard totals and county comparisons

Tennessee hazard totals combine the county estimates. The largest county column identifies concentration within each hazard; the state rank compares the same hazard across state-level entries.

Tennessee county loss totals

Tennessee population, values and ratings

Population

6,904,150

Building value

$1,357.42 billion

Agricultural value

$4.89 billion

Modeled loss per resident

$435

Tennessee county pages

Tennessee has 1 detailed county page linked below.

• Shelby County, TN: county detail

US county comparisons alongside Tennessee