Shelby County, TN flood risk and natural hazards
FEMA rates tornado risk as Very High in Shelby County, TN. Modeled losses from natural hazards (expected annual loss) average about $555 million a year, for a population of 929,552. These county figures come from the FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025 release. Observation windows vary by metric and sit beside the tables below.
- Modeled expected annual loss
- $554.7 million / year
- US loss rank
- #28 of 3,232
- State loss rank
- #1 of 95
- Loss per resident
- $597 · state $435 · US $459
- FEMA overall risk rating
- Relatively High
Tennessee county modeled loss
- Positive estimates to $6.5 million
- Above $6.5 million to $12.5 million
- Above $12.5 million to $18.5 million
- Above $18.5 million to $32.1 million
- Above $32.1 million to $554.7 million
- No FEMA estimate
Shelby County, TN ranks #1 of 95 in the state for modeled expected annual loss; the outline locates it.
View chart data
Is Shelby County at risk of flooding?
FEMA labels riverine flooding Relatively High and coastal flooding Not Applicable. Modeled annual riverine flood loss is $153,711,620; coastal flood loss is Not Applicable. These are separate hazards and county totals. A rating describes relative county risk. It does not locate water at a building or establish a flood zone. Read missing statuses using the source documentation. Keep both source labels when comparing counties. Read the county rating versus flood-zone guide before requesting a location check.
Look up an address and its flood zone through FEMA’s Flood Map Service Center.
What natural hazards affect Shelby County most?
Show tabular data
| County | Modeled expected annual loss (USD/year) | Overall risk rating |
|---|---|---|
| Shelby County, TN | 554,679,744.06 | Relatively High |
Show tabular data
| Hazard | Source label | Observation window |
|---|---|---|
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | 1996-2023 |
| Riverine flooding | Relatively High | 1996-2023 |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 1851-2024 |
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 1996-2023 |
| Earthquake | Relatively High | 1996-2023 |
| Tornado | Very High | 1950-2023 |
| Heat wave | Relatively High | 2005-2024 |
How have heat and rain changed in Shelby County?
Hot days
Hot days decreased between the two decades.
View chart data
| Place | Days / year |
|---|---|
| 1991–2000 | 26.10 |
| 2016–2025 | 24.80 |
Warm nights
Warm nights increased between the two decades.
View chart data
| Place | Days / year |
|---|---|
| 1991–2000 | 16.80 |
| 2016–2025 | 20.90 |
Heavy-precipitation days
Heavy-precipitation days increased between the two decades.
View chart data
| Place | Days / year |
|---|---|
| 1991–2000 | 1.00 |
| 2016–2025 | 1.40 |
Humid-heat days
Humid-heat days increased between the two decades.
View chart data
| Place | Days / year |
|---|---|
| 1991–2000 | 12.50 |
| 2016–2025 | 17.30 |
| Measure | 1991–2000 | 2016–2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days · ≥35°C (95°F) | 26.1 | 24.8 | −1.3 |
| Humid-heat days · heat index ≥103°F (39.4°C) | 12.5 | 17.3 | +4.8 |
| Warm nights · ≥24°C (75.2°F) | 16.8 | 20.9 | +4.1 |
| Heavy-rain days · ≥50 mm (≈2 in) | 1.0 | 1.4 | +0.4 |
| Annual maximum daily precipitation · mm | 54.0 | 69.7 | +15.7 |
Counts are days per year; a grid-cell zero does not mean the county had no such events. Thresholds, time bases and limits: county climate method.
Methodology & sensor cross-check notes
Hot-day cross-check: NOAA’s county-average daily maximum temperature gives 12.9 → 13.9 hot days a year (+1.0); NASA gives 26.1 → 24.8 (−1.3). The series disagree: NASA shows a decrease, while NOAA shows an increase. The footprints differ, so agreement does not validate either count. Warm nights and precipitation were not cross-checked. Humid-heat row: Copernicus (ECMWF) reanalysis. It uses a different regional grid from the NASA measures.
No statistical significance, cause or future trend is established; this does not change the FEMA ratings above.
Climate data: NASA · Population context: US Census Bureau · Hot-day cross-check: NOAA county climate records · Humid heat: Copernicus (ECMWF). Method, sources and limitations · Climate JSON · Data credits.
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direction"}}How does El Niño affect Shelby County winters?
Strong El Niño winter precipitation
3 of 9 strong El Niño winters were wetter than normal. The vertical line marks 100% of normal precipitation.
View chart data
| Winter | Precipitation (% of normal) |
|---|---|
| 1957–58 | 75.606 |
| 1965–66 | 74.769 |
| 1972–73 | 127.252 |
| 1982–83 | 135.591 |
| 1991–92 | 89.435 |
| 1997–98 | 104.230 |
| 2009–10 | 96.399 |
| 2015–16 | 90.802 |
| 2023–24 | 93.994 |
NOAA and IRI both give 100% odds that El Niño conditions (tropical Pacific ONI of at least 0.5°C, not a local weather forecast) are present this winter. In Shelby County, 3 of 9 past strong El Niño winters were wetter than normal; the median winter had 94% of normal precipitation (rain and melted snow). The driest, 1965–66, had 75%.
| Winter | ONI | Precipitation | Temp. | Heavy days | Claims |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1957–58 | 1.7 | 76% | −1.5°F | 3 | — |
| 1965–66 | 1.6 | 75% | −1.0°F | 2 | — |
| 1972–73 | 1.8 | 127% | −1.8°F | 5 | — |
| 1982–83 | 2.1 | 136% | +2.0°F | 5 | 8 (#3) |
| 1991–92 | 1.5 | 89% | +2.9°F | 3 | 1 (#20) |
| 1997–98 | 2.4 | 104% | +2.3°F | 5 | 0 |
| 2009–10 | 1.5 | 96% | −5.6°F | 5 | 2 (#11) |
| 2015–16 | 2.6 | 91% | +2.9°F | 5 | 7 (#4) |
| 2023–24 | 2.0 | 94% | +1.7°F | 3 | 1 (#20) |
Winter normals and temperature baseline
Shelby County normals, 1990–91 to 2019–20 winters: 14.3 inches of precipitation (rain and melted snow) and 4.0 heavy days. Temperature is set against the county’s own winter trend of +0.4°F per decade since 1951–52.
Flood claims: December–February, from 1978 (— = before the data). The rank compares each winter with all 47 winters from 1978–79 to 2024–25 (#1 is the most claims; no rank is shown for 0 claims). The median winter had 1 claims; 3 of 6 strong winters in the data were above it. Insured exposure grew over time, so counts are not comparable across decades.
Past tendency is not a forecast and not a property-level finding. Before winter: four checks for property teams.
Sources: NOAA county climate records and Pacific climate assessments; FEMA National Flood Insurance Program claims. Method and limits · El Niño 2026–27.
What are the modeled losses by hazard?
From 1991–2000 to 2016–2025, hot days near Shelby County changed from 26.1 to 24.8 per year. Heavy-rain days changed from 1.0 to 1.4. The table retains humid heat, warm nights and maximum daily rain. Compare the periods alongside the source notes. These decade means describe past conditions; they do not predict a future year or establish a trend.
Shelby County’s modeled loss across all hazards is $554,679,744 per year. The FEMA National Risk Index ranks the hazards below by modeled loss, not rating category.
Show tabular data
| Hazard | Total loss ($/yr) | Of which buildings ($/yr) | Observation window |
|---|---|---|---|
| All hazards (composite) | $554,679,744 | $315,369,122 | 1996-2023 |
| Earthquake | $215,183,553 | $126,023,384 | 1996-2023 |
| Riverine flooding | $153,711,620 | $148,519,840 | 1996-2023 |
| Tornado | $70,123,556 | $38,599,764 | 1950-2023 |
| Heat wave | $48,569,914 | Not published | 2005-2024 |
| Hurricane | $349,654 | $329,460 | 1851-2024 |
| Wildfire | $145,014 | $121,492 | 1996-2023 |
| Coastal flooding | Not available | Not available | 1996-2023 |
These modeled county totals do not estimate property losses, insurance inputs or forecasts. Do not multiply them by location counts.
Reuse this chart
What is exposed in Shelby County?
Population and asset values show the scale behind county losses. These county totals are exposure measures, not loss figures.
Show tabular data
| Measure | Value | Observation window |
|---|---|---|
| Resident population | 929,552 | 2020-2020 |
| Building replacement value | $200,616,800,172 | 2020-2020 |
| Agricultural market value | $35,326,863 | 2022-2022 |
What do vulnerability and resilience show?
These relative rankings describe susceptibility to hazard impacts and capacity to recover. They measure no individual asset or outcome.
Show tabular data
| Measure | Score | Observation window |
|---|---|---|
| Social vulnerability index | 72.6 | 2020-2020 |
| Community resilience index | 57.5 | 2020-2020 |
Shelby County in the state and national rankings
For Shelby County, FEMA’s modeled annual loss totals about $554.7 million; its US rank is #28 of 3,232. A #1 of 95 state ranking accompanies its 18.5% share of the Tennessee loss total. The modeled $554.7 million annual average does not predict the loss in any single year. Fresno County, CA ranks immediately above it, with about $557.3 million in modeled annual loss. The next lower national total is about $531.9 million, in Pierce County, WA. Within the state list, Davidson County, TN has the next lower estimate: about $262.4 million. Its 8.7% state loss share accompanies an estimate about $292.3 million away from this county’s total.
County hazard loss mix
Earthquake leads the modeled expected annual loss mix; bar lengths share a zero baseline.
View chart data
| Hazard | USD / year | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Earthquake | 215,183,552.92 | 38.8% |
| Riverine Flood | 153,711,620.10 | 27.7% |
| Tornado | 70,123,555.77 | 12.6% |
| Cold Wave | 62,241,831.99 | 11.2% |
| Heat Wave | 48,569,913.63 | 8.8% |
| Lightning | 1,713,239.60 | 0.3% |
| Other | 3,136,030.06 | 0.6% |
National hazard loss ranks
Earthquake ranks #19 of 3,232 by modeled expected annual loss. Higher percentiles mean larger modeled losses.
View chart data
| Hazard | Rank | Percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Earthquake | #19 of 3,232 US · #1 of 95 in TN | 99.44 |
| Riverine Flood | #64 of 3,232 US · #2 of 95 in TN | 98.05 |
| Tornado | #13 of 3,225 US · #1 of 95 in TN | 99.63 |
| Cold Wave | #9 of 3,232 US · #1 of 95 in TN | 99.75 |
| Heat Wave | #15 of 3,202 US · #1 of 95 in TN | 99.56 |
| Lightning | #183 of 3,222 US · #3 of 95 in TN | 94.35 |
Modeled loss per resident
Shelby has about $597 in modeled expected annual loss per resident. State and US values divide total loss by total population.
View chart data
| Place | USD / resident / year |
|---|---|
| Shelby | 596.72 |
| Tennessee | 435.15 |
| US | 459.35 |
Shelby County hazard estimates
Earthquake
The national loss rank for earthquakes is #19 of 3,232, based on about $215.2 million in modeled expected annual loss. This hazard makes up 38.8% of the total; FEMA assigns a Relatively High rating, and its loss ranks #1 of 95 in Tennessee; the Relatively High label covers 3 state counties and 53 nationally for earthquakes.
Riverine Flood
The national loss rank for riverine flooding is #64 of 3,232, based on about $153.7 million in modeled expected annual loss. Its 27.7% share of total loss comes with a state loss rank of #2 of 95; FEMA assigns a Relatively High rating; the Relatively High label covers 4 state counties and 186 nationally for riverine flooding.
Tornado
The national loss rank for tornadoes is #13 of 3,225, based on about $70.1 million in modeled expected annual loss. At 12.6% of the county’s modeled loss, the hazard places #1 of 95 statewide; FEMA assigns a Very High rating; for tornadoes, 1 state county and 37 US counties share that label.
Cold Wave
With about $62.2 million in modeled expected annual loss from cold waves, the county ranks #9 of 3,232 in the national comparison. In Tennessee, this estimate ranks #1 of 95 and represents 11.2% of the county’s modeled loss; FEMA assigns a Very High rating, matching 39 US counties, including 1 in Tennessee, for this hazard.
Heat Wave
For heat waves, about $48.6 million in expected annual loss puts the county #15 of 3,202 across the US. This hazard makes up 8.8% of the total; FEMA assigns a Relatively High rating, and its loss ranks #1 of 95 in Tennessee; the same rating for heat waves covers 1 Tennessee county and 98 across the US.
Lightning
For lightning, about $1.7 million in expected annual loss puts the county #183 of 3,222 across the US. In Tennessee, this estimate ranks #3 of 95 and represents 0.3% of the county’s modeled loss; FEMA assigns a Relatively High rating, matching 461 US counties, including 18 in Tennessee, for this hazard.
For earthquakes, modeled loss is about $61.5 million above riverine flooding, leaving 11.1 percentage points between their county shares. For riverine flooding, modeled loss is about $83.6 million above tornadoes, leaving 15.1 percentage points between their county shares. The loss estimate for tornadoes exceeds cold waves by about $7.9 million, equivalent to 1.4 percentage points of total loss. The loss estimate for cold waves exceeds heat waves by about $13.7 million, equivalent to 2.5 percentage points of total loss. About $46.9 million separates heat waves from lightning in the local estimates, equivalent to 8.4 percentage points of county loss.
Population and recorded values
FEMA counts 929,552 residents in Shelby County, across about 788 square miles. FEMA lists about $200.62 billion in building value. FEMA lists about $35.3 million in agricultural value. Total modeled loss averages about $597 per resident annually, compared with about $435 statewide. The county holds 13.5% of the state population, compared with 18.5% of modeled loss. The county contains 14.8% of the building value recorded across Tennessee. Among 95 state county records with both inputs, its density stands at position 2 from highest to lowest. The population-to-area ratio is about 1,179 residents per square mile; statewide it is about 162. At 929,552 residents, the county compares with the Tennessee county median of about 32,028. The county’s national shares are 0.3% for population and 0.4% for modeled loss. For comparison, the US modeled loss average is about $459 per resident; the county figure is about $597. About $551.5 million of annual loss falls within the six leading hazards, accounting for 99.4% of the total. Other hazards account for the remaining 0.6% of modeled loss, about $3.1 million. The county’s number 7 hazard by dollar loss is strong wind: about $1.4 million, with a state rank of #15 of 95. Nationally, this estimate places #561 of 3,225; its share of the county’s modeled loss is 0.3%. The county’s number 8 hazard by dollar loss is ice storms: about $818,000, with a state rank of #6 of 95. Its national loss rank is #323 of 3,001, and it represents 0.1% of the county’s modeled loss.
FEMA labels and risk score
Shelby County has a FEMA risk index score of about 99.4, ranking #21 of 3,144 nationally. FEMA labels risk index as Relatively High, matching 2 county records across Tennessee. FEMA labels expected annual loss as Relatively High, matching 2 county records across Tennessee. For social vulnerability, FEMA assigns Relatively High; 33 counties in Tennessee have that label. FEMA labels community resilience as Relatively Moderate, matching 24 county records across Tennessee. Within Tennessee, the risk score places #1 of 95 and the dollar loss places #1 of 95. This combination, Relatively High for vulnerability and Relatively Moderate for resilience, occurs in 9 counties in Tennessee. Those counties together hold 26.7% of Tennessee modeled loss, including this county’s 69.1% share of their total. With a score of about 97.2, Davidson County, TN ranks #2 of 95 statewide, immediately below this county. FEMA gives that county a Relatively High risk index label, alongside 8.7% of the state loss total. Nationally, 630 counties carry the same Relatively High social vulnerability label, covering 15.4% of FEMA’s recorded population. FEMA lists 629 county records with Relatively Moderate community resilience; together they contain 17.0% of its US population total. Across the county’s hazard ratings, 2 carry Very High: cold waves, tornadoes. The local Relatively High hazard group contains 7 entries: earthquakes, heat waves, ice storms, lightning, riverine flooding, strong wind, winter weather. The county’s Relatively Moderate group contains 1 hazard: landslides. The county’s Relatively Low group contains 3 hazards: drought, hurricanes, wildfires. FEMA assigns Very Low to 1 hazard here, covering hail.
What else should I know about Shelby County?
What does FEMA estimate for riverine flooding in Shelby County?
Shelby County has about $153.7 million in modeled expected annual loss from riverine flooding, with a Relatively High rating.
What does FEMA estimate for hurricanes in Shelby County?
For hurricanes, FEMA lists Shelby County at Relatively Low, with about $350,000 in modeled expected annual loss.
What does FEMA estimate for hail in Shelby County?
For hail, FEMA lists Shelby County at Very Low, with about $33,000 in modeled expected annual loss.
How often were strong El Niño winters wetter in Shelby County?
Shelby County was wetter than normal in 3 of 9 strong El Niño winters.
How large is Shelby County?
FEMA records about 788 square miles for Shelby County.
What does FEMA estimate for tornadoes in Shelby County?
Shelby County has about $70.1 million in modeled expected annual loss from tornadoes, with a Very High rating.
What is the FEMA risk index rating for Shelby County?
FEMA assigns Shelby County a Relatively High risk index rating.
Where next for Shelby County?
See how the county compares across the state in Tennessee natural hazard risk by county, download the FEMA county hazard data, or review the county climate risk data API and bulk files. Check the sources and what each measure can show on the methodology page.