Texas natural hazard risk by county

Texas has about $12.35 billion in modeled expected annual loss across 254 counties. The state accounts for 8.0% of the national modeled loss total. Its total ranks #2 among 56 state-level entries by modeled loss. FEMA published these 254 county estimates in its December 2025 National Risk Index. The modeled $12.35 billion annual average does not predict loss in any one year.

Modeled expected annual loss

$12.35 billion / year

Share of US loss

8.0%

State loss rank

#2 of 56

Largest modeled-loss hazard

Riverine Flood

Reading the Texas county map

The map groups 254 county estimates into five within-state loss classes. Each boundary follows the county geography, while the fill represents modeled dollars per year. The class breaks are calculated from Texas county values, so a matching shade on another state page need not represent the same amount. Grey marks unmatched geography or an unavailable estimate. Outlined counties link to the detailed profiles available in this release; counties without profiles still contribute to the state totals.

Together, the three largest estimates account for 31.6% of Texas modeled annual loss. Their combined population represents 28.9% of the state source population. Comparing these two shares helps distinguish the concentration of modeled dollars from the concentration of residents. Neither share identifies the exposure of an individual address, and the map does not show the location of damage within a county.

County totals beside population

Harris County, TX combines about $2.22 billion in modeled annual loss with 4,726,200 recorded residents. Dividing those figures gives about $469 per resident, compared with $424 statewide. On this population-adjusted measure, the county places #183 among the 254 state county records. This ratio spreads all modeled losses across residents for comparison; it is not a household bill, an insurance premium or an estimate of personal damage.

Dallas County, TX combines about $973.2 million in modeled annual loss with 2,607,218 recorded residents. Dividing those figures gives about $373 per resident, compared with $424 statewide. On this population-adjusted measure, the county places #214 among the 254 state county records. This ratio spreads all modeled losses across residents for comparison; it is not a household bill, an insurance premium or an estimate of personal damage.

Collin County, TX combines about $716.3 million in modeled annual loss with 1,063,649 recorded residents. Dividing those figures gives about $673 per resident, compared with $424 statewide. On this population-adjusted measure, the county places #119 among the 254 state county records. This ratio spreads all modeled losses across residents for comparison; it is not a household bill, an insurance premium or an estimate of personal damage.

Where the leading hazards are concentrated

For riverine flooding, Harris County, TX contributes 22.7% of the state hazard total. The next county, Bexar County, TX, contributes about $364.8 million annually, compared with $1.12 billion for the leader. Across Texas, 254 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $3.45 billion after those two leading estimates. The state places #2 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 40.0%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.

For tornadoes, Collin County, TX contributes 17.7% of the state hazard total. The next county, Harris County, TX, contributes about $407.4 million annually, compared with $420.4 million for the leader. Across Texas, 254 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $1.54 billion after those two leading estimates. The state places #1 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 19.2%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.

For hurricanes, Harris County, TX contributes 35.9% of the state hazard total. The next county, Hidalgo County, TX, contributes about $126.7 million annually, compared with $457.9 million for the leader. Across Texas, 241 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $689.0 million after those two leading estimates. The state places #5 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 10.3%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.

For cold waves, Harris County, TX contributes 10.8% of the state hazard total. The next county, Dallas County, TX, contributes about $98.4 million annually, compared with $118.1 million for the leader. Across Texas, 254 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $877.3 million after those two leading estimates. The state places #2 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 8.9%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.

For hail, Dallas County, TX contributes 15.3% of the state hazard total. The next county, Tarrant County, TX, contributes about $112.5 million annually, compared with $127.5 million for the leader. Across Texas, 254 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $594.9 million after those two leading estimates. The state places #1 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 6.8%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.

For heat waves, Dallas County, TX contributes 36.2% of the state hazard total. The next county, Harris County, TX, contributes about $80.4 million annually, compared with $288.4 million for the leader. Across Texas, 254 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $428.7 million after those two leading estimates. The state places #2 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 6.5%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.

Texas hazard totals and county comparisons

Texas hazard totals combine the county estimates. The largest county column identifies concentration within each hazard; the state rank compares the same hazard across state-level entries.

Texas county loss totals

Texas population, values and ratings

Population

29,099,690

Building value

$5,293.83 billion

Agricultural value

$32.09 billion

Modeled loss per resident

$424

Texas county pages

Texas has 2 detailed county pages linked below.

• Dallas County, TX: county detail
• Harris County, TX: county detail

US county comparisons alongside Texas