Dallas County, TX flood risk and natural hazards
FEMA rates riverine flooding, tornado and heat wave risk as Very High in Dallas County, TX. Modeled losses from natural hazards (expected annual loss) average about $973 million a year, for a population of 2,607,218. These county figures come from the FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025 release. Observation windows vary by metric and sit beside the tables below.
- Modeled expected annual loss
- $973.2 million / year
- US loss rank
- #12 of 3,232
- State loss rank
- #2 of 254
- Loss per resident
- $373 · state $424 · US $459
- FEMA overall risk rating
- Very High
Texas county modeled loss
- Positive estimates to $4.6 million
- Above $4.6 million to $8.9 million
- Above $8.9 million to $16.2 million
- Above $16.2 million to $33.9 million
- Above $33.9 million to $2.22 billion
- No FEMA estimate
Dallas County, TX ranks #2 of 254 in the state for modeled expected annual loss; the outline locates it.
View chart data
Is Dallas County at risk of flooding?
FEMA labels riverine flooding Very High and coastal flooding Not Applicable. Modeled annual riverine flood loss is $323,744,956; coastal flood loss is Not Applicable. These are separate hazards and county totals. A rating describes relative county risk. It does not locate water at a building or establish a flood zone. Read missing statuses using the source documentation. Keep both source labels when comparing counties. Read the county rating versus flood-zone guide before requesting a location check.
Look up an address and its flood zone through FEMA’s Flood Map Service Center.
What natural hazards affect Dallas County most?
Show tabular data
| County | Modeled expected annual loss (USD/year) | Overall risk rating |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas County, TX | 973,176,568.66 | Very High |
Show tabular data
| Hazard | Source label | Observation window |
|---|---|---|
| Coastal flooding | Not Applicable | 1996-2023 |
| Riverine flooding | Very High | 1996-2023 |
| Hurricane | Relatively Low | 1851-2024 |
| Wildfire | Relatively Low | 1996-2023 |
| Earthquake | Relatively Moderate | 1996-2023 |
| Tornado | Very High | 1950-2023 |
| Heat wave | Very High | 2005-2024 |
How have heat and rain changed in Dallas County?
Hot days
Hot days increased between the two decades.
View chart data
| Place | Days / year |
|---|---|
| 1991–2000 | 57.20 |
| 2016–2025 | 63.00 |
Warm nights
Warm nights increased between the two decades.
View chart data
| Place | Days / year |
|---|---|
| 1991–2000 | 37.30 |
| 2016–2025 | 54.20 |
Heavy-precipitation days
Heavy-precipitation days increased between the two decades.
View chart data
| Place | Days / year |
|---|---|
| 1991–2000 | 0.60 |
| 2016–2025 | 1.00 |
Humid-heat days
Humid-heat days increased between the two decades.
View chart data
| Place | Days / year |
|---|---|
| 1991–2000 | 17.70 |
| 2016–2025 | 37.10 |
| Measure | 1991–2000 | 2016–2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days · ≥35°C (95°F) | 57.2 | 63.0 | +5.8 |
| Humid-heat days · heat index ≥103°F (39.4°C) | 17.7 | 37.1 | +19.4 |
| Warm nights · ≥24°C (75.2°F) | 37.3 | 54.2 | +16.9 |
| Heavy-rain days · ≥50 mm (≈2 in) | 0.6 | 1.0 | +0.4 |
| Annual maximum daily precipitation · mm | 49.2 | 54.9 | +5.7 |
Counts are days per year; a grid-cell zero does not mean the county had no such events. Thresholds, time bases and limits: county climate method.
Methodology & sensor cross-check notes
Hot-day cross-check: NOAA’s county-average daily maximum temperature gives 40.8 → 51.0 hot days a year (+10.2); NASA gives 57.2 → 63.0 (+5.8). Both series show an increase, with different counts and change sizes. The footprints differ, so agreement does not validate either count. Warm nights and precipitation were not cross-checked. Humid-heat row: Copernicus (ECMWF) reanalysis. It uses a different regional grid from the NASA measures.
No statistical significance, cause or future trend is established; this does not change the FEMA ratings above.
Climate data: NASA · Population context: US Census Bureau · Hot-day cross-check: NOAA county climate records · Humid heat: Copernicus (ECMWF). Method, sources and limitations · Climate JSON · Data credits.
{"fips":"48113","name":"Dallas","state":"Texas","annual":[{"year":1991,"valid_days":365,"hot_days":38,"humid_heat_days":6,"warm_nights":17,"heavy_rain_days":2,"annual_max_rain":77.2},{"year":1992,"valid_days":366,"hot_days":13,"humid_heat_days":8,"warm_nights":3,"heavy_rain_days":0,"annual_max_rain":46.5},{"year":1993,"valid_days":365,"hot_days":68,"humid_heat_days":13,"warm_nights":51,"heavy_rain_days":2,"annual_max_rain":58.23},{"year":1994,"valid_days":365,"hot_days":47,"humid_heat_days":16,"warm_nights":11,"heavy_rain_days":0,"annual_max_rain":37.16},{"year":1995,"valid_days":365,"hot_days":44,"humid_heat_days":17,"warm_nights":37,"heavy_rain_days":0,"annual_max_rain":36.09},{"year":1996,"valid_days":366,"hot_days":61,"humid_heat_days":12,"warm_nights":39,"heavy_rain_days":0,"annual_max_rain":49.18},{"year":1997,"valid_days":365,"hot_days":61,"humid_heat_days":16,"warm_nights":34,"heavy_rain_days":2,"annual_max_rain":74},{"year":1998,"valid_days":365,"hot_days":100,"humid_heat_days":47,"warm_nights":79,"heavy_rain_days":0,"annual_max_rain":38.36},{"year":1999,"valid_days":365,"hot_days":59,"humid_heat_days":21,"warm_nights":48,"heavy_rain_days":0,"annual_max_rain":34.04},{"year":2000,"valid_days":366,"hot_days":81,"humid_heat_days":21,"warm_nights":54,"heavy_rain_days":0,"annual_max_rain":41.16},{"year":2001,"valid_days":365,"hot_days":47,"humid_heat_days":null,"warm_nights":44,"heavy_rain_days":0,"annual_max_rain":44.3},{"year":2002,"valid_days":365,"hot_days":46,"humid_heat_days":null,"warm_nights":34,"heavy_rain_days":1,"annual_max_rain":79.92},{"year":2003,"valid_days":365,"hot_days":59,"humid_heat_days":null,"warm_nights":41,"heavy_rain_days":0,"annual_max_rain":31.46},{"year":2004,"valid_days":366,"hot_days":19,"humid_heat_days":null,"warm_nights":4,"heavy_rain_days":1,"annual_max_rain":60.42},{"year":2005,"valid_days":365,"hot_days":92,"humid_heat_days":null,"warm_nights":46,"heavy_rain_days":0,"annual_max_rain":27.36},{"year":2006,"valid_days":365,"hot_days":82,"humid_heat_days":null,"warm_nights":53,"heavy_rain_days":1,"annual_max_rain":56.42},{"year":2007,"valid_days":365,"hot_days":4,"humid_heat_days":null,"warm_nights":13,"heavy_rain_days":0,"annual_max_rain":44.59},{"year":2008,"valid_days":366,"hot_days":60,"humid_heat_days":null,"warm_nights":40,"heavy_rain_days":1,"annual_max_rain":75.55},{"year":2009,"valid_days":365,"hot_days":63,"humid_heat_days":null,"warm_nights":34,"heavy_rain_days":0,"annual_max_rain":45.95},{"year":2010,"valid_days":365,"hot_days":68,"humid_heat_days":null,"warm_nights":60,"heavy_rain_days":1,"annual_max_rain":84.34},{"year":2011,"valid_days":365,"hot_days":104,"humid_heat_days":null,"warm_nights":80,"heavy_rain_days":0,"annual_max_rain":29.66},{"year":2012,"valid_days":366,"hot_days":71,"humid_heat_days":null,"warm_nights":47,"heavy_rain_days":2,"annual_max_rain":76.35},{"year":2013,"valid_days":365,"hot_days":71,"humid_heat_days":null,"warm_nights":50,"heavy_rain_days":0,"annual_max_rain":35.05},{"year":2014,"valid_days":365,"hot_days":50,"humid_heat_days":null,"warm_nights":27,"heavy_rain_days":0,"annual_max_rain":37.69},{"year":2015,"valid_days":365,"hot_days":58,"humid_heat_days":null,"warm_nights":34,"heavy_rain_days":7,"annual_max_rain":74.53},{"year":2016,"valid_days":366,"hot_days":33,"humid_heat_days":44,"warm_nights":44,"heavy_rain_days":0,"annual_max_rain":42.32},{"year":2017,"valid_days":365,"hot_days":37,"humid_heat_days":30,"warm_nights":37,"heavy_rain_days":0,"annual_max_rain":45.63},{"year":2018,"valid_days":365,"hot_days":79,"humid_heat_days":40,"warm_nights":72,"heavy_rain_days":3,"annual_max_rain":90.52},{"year":2019,"valid_days":365,"hot_days":69,"humid_heat_days":55,"warm_nights":65,"heavy_rain_days":0,"annual_max_rain":42.37},{"year":2020,"valid_days":366,"hot_days":51,"humid_heat_days":41,"warm_nights":46,"heavy_rain_days":2,"annual_max_rain":60.84},{"year":2021,"valid_days":365,"hot_days":41,"humid_heat_days":19,"warm_nights":35,"heavy_rain_days":0,"annual_max_rain":33.04},{"year":2022,"valid_days":365,"hot_days":91,"humid_heat_days":34,"warm_nights":73,"heavy_rain_days":2,"annual_max_rain":79.62},{"year":2023,"valid_days":365,"hot_days":97,"humid_heat_days":63,"warm_nights":79,"heavy_rain_days":0,"annual_max_rain":42.14},{"year":2024,"valid_days":366,"hot_days":69,"humid_heat_days":34,"warm_nights":49,"heavy_rain_days":2,"annual_max_rain":58.2},{"year":2025,"valid_days":365,"hot_days":63,"humid_heat_days":11,"warm_nights":42,"heavy_rain_days":1,"annual_max_rain":54.08}],"metrics":{"hot_days":{"baseline":57.2,"recent":63,"delta":5.8},"humid_heat_days":{"baseline":17.7,"recent":37.1,"delta":19.4},"warm_nights":{"baseline":37.3,"recent":54.2,"delta":16.9},"heavy_rain_days":{"baseline":0.6,"recent":1,"delta":0.4},"annual_max_rain":{"baseline":49.192,"recent":54.876,"delta":5.684}},"crosscheck":{"metric":"hot_days","annual":[{"year":1991,"hot_days":23},{"year":1992,"hot_days":3},{"year":1993,"hot_days":43},{"year":1994,"hot_days":22},{"year":1995,"hot_days":39},{"year":1996,"hot_days":39},{"year":1997,"hot_days":43},{"year":1998,"hot_days":92},{"year":1999,"hot_days":46},{"year":2000,"hot_days":58},{"year":2016,"hot_days":49},{"year":2017,"hot_days":26},{"year":2018,"hot_days":68},{"year":2019,"hot_days":54},{"year":2020,"hot_days":38},{"year":2021,"hot_days":35},{"year":2022,"hot_days":73},{"year":2023,"hot_days":77},{"year":2024,"hot_days":57},{"year":2025,"hot_days":33}],"baseline":40.8,"recent":51,"delta":10.2,"agreement":"same direction"}}How does El Niño affect Dallas County winters?
Strong El Niño winter precipitation
5 of 9 strong El Niño winters were wetter than normal. The vertical line marks 100% of normal precipitation.
View chart data
| Winter | Precipitation (% of normal) |
|---|---|
| 1957–58 | 62.051 |
| 1965–66 | 79.863 |
| 1972–73 | 82.908 |
| 1982–83 | 102.479 |
| 1991–92 | 182.898 |
| 1997–98 | 179.530 |
| 2009–10 | 101.454 |
| 2015–16 | 99.640 |
| 2023–24 | 104.558 |
NOAA and IRI both give 100% odds that El Niño conditions (tropical Pacific ONI of at least 0.5°C, not a local weather forecast) are present this winter. In Dallas County, 5 of 9 past strong El Niño winters were wetter than normal; the median winter had 101% of normal precipitation (rain and melted snow). The driest, 1957–58, had 62%.
| Winter | ONI | Precipitation | Temp. | Heavy days | Claims |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1957–58 | 1.7 | 62% | +0.9°F | 2 | — |
| 1965–66 | 1.6 | 80% | −0.5°F | 1 | — |
| 1972–73 | 1.8 | 83% | −3.4°F | 3 | — |
| 1982–83 | 2.1 | 102% | −0.1°F | 3 | 3 (#18) |
| 1991–92 | 1.5 | 183% | +2.5°F | 5 | 152 (#1) |
| 1997–98 | 2.4 | 180% | +0.9°F | 6 | 19 (#3) |
| 2009–10 | 1.5 | 101% | −5.4°F | 1 | 2 (#23) |
| 2015–16 | 2.6 | 100% | +2.5°F | 4 | 9 (#7) |
| 2023–24 | 2.0 | 105% | +1.6°F | 1 | 3 (#18) |
Winter normals and temperature baseline
Dallas County normals, 1990–91 to 2019–20 winters: 8.6 inches of precipitation (rain and melted snow) and 2.2 heavy days. Temperature is set against the county’s own winter trend of +0.4°F per decade since 1951–52.
Flood claims: December–February, from 1978 (— = before the data). The rank compares each winter with all 47 winters from 1978–79 to 2024–25 (#1 is the most claims; no rank is shown for 0 claims). The median winter had 2 claims; 5 of 6 strong winters in the data were above it. Insured exposure grew over time, so counts are not comparable across decades.
Past tendency is not a forecast and not a property-level finding. Before winter: four checks for property teams.
Sources: NOAA county climate records and Pacific climate assessments; FEMA National Flood Insurance Program claims. Method and limits · El Niño 2026–27.
What are the modeled losses by hazard?
From 1991–2000 to 2016–2025, hot days near Dallas County changed from 57.2 to 63.0 per year. Heavy-rain days changed from 0.6 to 1.0. The table retains humid heat, warm nights and maximum daily rain. Compare the periods alongside the source notes. These decade means describe past conditions; they do not predict a future year or establish a trend.
Dallas County’s modeled loss across all hazards is $973,176,569 per year. The FEMA National Risk Index ranks the hazards below by modeled loss, not rating category.
Show tabular data
| Hazard | Total loss ($/yr) | Of which buildings ($/yr) | Observation window |
|---|---|---|---|
| All hazards (composite) | $973,176,569 | $539,496,159 | 1996-2023 |
| Riverine flooding | $323,744,956 | $316,181,884 | 1996-2023 |
| Heat wave | $288,425,212 | Not published | 2005-2024 |
| Tornado | $114,760,019 | $85,906,013 | 1950-2023 |
| Earthquake | $5,400,882 | $4,117,863 | 1996-2023 |
| Hurricane | $676,444 | $628,884 | 1851-2024 |
| Wildfire | $348,784 | $289,123 | 1996-2023 |
| Coastal flooding | Not available | Not available | 1996-2023 |
These modeled county totals do not estimate property losses, insurance inputs or forecasts. Do not multiply them by location counts.
Reuse this chart
What is exposed in Dallas County?
Population and asset values show the scale behind county losses. These county totals are exposure measures, not loss figures.
Show tabular data
| Measure | Value | Observation window |
|---|---|---|
| Resident population | 2,607,218 | 2020-2020 |
| Building replacement value | $436,068,129,049 | 2020-2020 |
| Agricultural market value | $38,351,466 | 2022-2022 |
What do vulnerability and resilience show?
These relative rankings describe susceptibility to hazard impacts and capacity to recover. They measure no individual asset or outcome.
Show tabular data
| Measure | Score | Observation window |
|---|---|---|
| Social vulnerability index | 59.1 | 2020-2020 |
| Community resilience index | 12.9 | 2020-2020 |
Dallas County in the state and national rankings
National placement for Dallas County is #12 of 3,232, with an expected annual loss estimate of about $973.2 million. Its share of Texas modeled loss is 7.9%, with a state rank of #2 of 254. The modeled $973.2 million annual average does not predict the loss in any single year. San Diego County, CA ranks immediately above it, with about $1.54 billion in modeled annual loss. Contra Costa County, CA ranks immediately below it, with about $970.5 million in modeled annual loss. At about $2.22 billion, Harris County, TX is one place higher in the state loss ordering. Its 18.0% state loss share accompanies an estimate about $1.24 billion away from this county’s total. At about $716.3 million, Collin County, TX is one place lower in the state loss ordering. That puts the estimates about $256.9 million apart, with 5.8% of state loss in the comparison county.
County hazard loss mix
Riverine Flood leads the modeled expected annual loss mix; bar lengths share a zero baseline.
View chart data
| Hazard | USD / year | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Riverine Flood | 323,744,955.78 | 33.3% |
| Heat Wave | 288,425,211.93 | 29.6% |
| Hail | 127,529,747.96 | 13.1% |
| Tornado | 114,760,018.70 | 11.8% |
| Cold Wave | 98,392,123.15 | 10.1% |
| Earthquake | 5,400,881.86 | 0.6% |
| Other | 14,923,629.26 | 1.5% |
National hazard loss ranks
Riverine Flood ranks #18 of 3,232 by modeled expected annual loss. Higher percentiles mean larger modeled losses.
View chart data
| Hazard | Rank | Percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Riverine Flood | #18 of 3,232 US · #3 of 254 in TX | 99.47 |
| Heat Wave | #3 of 3,202 US · #1 of 254 in TX | 99.94 |
| Hail | #1 of 3,225 US · #1 of 254 in TX | 100.00 |
| Tornado | #7 of 3,225 US · #6 of 254 in TX | 99.81 |
| Cold Wave | #5 of 3,232 US · #2 of 254 in TX | 99.88 |
| Earthquake | #340 of 3,232 US · #2 of 254 in TX | 89.51 |
Modeled loss per resident
Dallas has about $373 in modeled expected annual loss per resident. State and US values divide total loss by total population.
View chart data
| Place | USD / resident / year |
|---|---|
| Dallas | 373.26 |
| Texas | 424.31 |
| US | 459.35 |
Dallas County hazard estimates
Riverine Flood
FEMA models about $323.7 million in expected annual loss from riverine flooding, placing the county #18 of 3,232 nationally. This hazard makes up 33.3% of the total; FEMA assigns a Very High rating, and its loss ranks #3 of 254 in Texas; for riverine flooding, 3 state counties and 26 US counties share that label.
Heat Wave
For heat waves, about $288.4 million in expected annual loss puts the county #3 of 3,202 across the US. This hazard makes up 29.6% of the total; FEMA assigns a Very High rating, and its loss ranks #1 of 254 in Texas; for heat waves, 2 state counties and 11 US counties share that label.
Hail
At about $127.5 million, the modeled expected annual loss from hail ranks first among 3,225 US counties. This hazard makes up 13.1% of the total; FEMA assigns a Very High rating, and its loss ranks #1 of 254 in Texas; the same rating for hail covers 12 Texas counties and 25 across the US.
Tornado
FEMA models about $114.8 million in expected annual loss from tornadoes, placing the county #7 of 3,225 nationally. This hazard makes up 11.8% of the total; FEMA assigns a Very High rating, and its loss ranks #6 of 254 in Texas; the Very High label covers 9 state counties and 37 nationally for tornadoes.
Cold Wave
For cold waves, about $98.4 million in expected annual loss puts the county #5 of 3,232 across the US. This hazard makes up 10.1% of the total; FEMA assigns a Very High rating, and its loss ranks #2 of 254 in Texas; the same rating for cold waves covers 7 Texas counties and 39 across the US.
Earthquake
FEMA models about $5.4 million in expected annual loss from earthquakes, placing the county #340 of 3,232 nationally. At 0.6% of the county’s modeled loss, the hazard places #2 of 254 statewide; FEMA assigns a Relatively Moderate rating; the Relatively Moderate label covers 3 state counties and 250 nationally for earthquakes.
About $35.3 million separates riverine flooding from heat waves in the local estimates, equivalent to 3.6 percentage points of county loss. About $160.9 million separates heat waves from hail in the local estimates, equivalent to 16.5 percentage points of county loss. About $12.8 million separates hail from tornadoes in the local estimates, equivalent to 1.3 percentage points of county loss. For tornadoes, modeled loss is about $16.4 million above cold waves, leaving 1.7 percentage points between their county shares. The loss estimate for cold waves exceeds earthquakes by about $93.0 million, equivalent to 9.6 percentage points of total loss.
Population and recorded values
FEMA counts 2,607,218 residents in Dallas County, across about 918 square miles. The recorded building value is about $436.07 billion. The recorded agricultural value is about $38.4 million. Total modeled loss averages about $373 per resident annually, compared with about $424 statewide. The county holds 9.0% of the state population, compared with 7.9% of modeled loss. Buildings account for 8.2% of recorded Texas building value. The county holds density position 1 of 254 in Texas, using FEMA’s recorded population and area. Those recorded totals give about 2,841 residents per square mile, versus about 107 across Texas. The median county population in Texas is about 18,439, compared with 2,607,218 locally. In the US totals, the county represents 0.6% of modeled annual loss and 0.8% of recorded residents. Using the national population gives about $459 in modeled annual loss per person, versus about $373 here. About $958.3 million of annual loss falls within the six leading hazards, accounting for 98.5% of the total. Other hazards account for the remaining 1.5% of modeled loss, about $14.9 million. The county’s number 7 hazard by dollar loss is strong wind: about $5.3 million, with a state rank of #3 of 254. Its national loss rank is #68 of 3,225, and it represents 0.5% of the county’s modeled loss. About $4.7 million places ice storms at number 8 in the local loss list and #2 of 254 within Texas. This 0.5% slice of county loss ranks #19 of 3,001 across US counties.
FEMA labels and risk score
Dallas County has a FEMA risk index score of about 99.7, ranking #12 of 3,144 nationally. For risk index, FEMA assigns Very High; 2 counties in Texas have that label. FEMA labels expected annual loss as Relatively High, matching 12 county records across Texas. Among 254 Texas counties, 46 receive the same Relatively Moderate label for social vulnerability. For community resilience, FEMA assigns Very Low; 106 counties in Texas have that label. Within Texas, the risk score places #2 of 254 and the dollar loss places #2 of 254. Both ratings match in 14 counties statewide: vulnerability is Relatively Moderate, and resilience is Very Low. This county accounts for 86.2% of that group’s annual loss, while the group accounts for 9.1% across Texas. With a score of about 99.9, Harris County, TX ranks #1 of 254 statewide, immediately above this county. That comparison county holds a Very High risk index rating and 18.0% of Texas modeled annual loss. On the state risk-score list, Bexar County, TX sits immediately below, scoring about 99.4 and ranking #3 of 254. For that neighboring score, the risk index category is Relatively High, and the county’s state loss share is 5.0%. The Relatively Moderate category for social vulnerability includes 628 US counties and 21.5% of recorded US residents. The Very Low category for community resilience includes 628 US counties and 18.6% of recorded US residents. Across the county’s hazard ratings, 9 carry Very High: cold waves, hail, heat waves, ice storms, lightning, riverine flooding, strong wind, tornadoes, winter weather. The county’s Relatively Moderate group contains 1 hazard: earthquakes. FEMA assigns Relatively Low to 3 hazards here, covering drought, hurricanes, wildfires. Across the county’s hazard ratings, 1 carry Very Low: landslides.
What else should I know about Dallas County?
Where does Dallas County rank nationally by loss?
Dallas County places #12 of 3,232 for modeled expected annual loss.
What is modeled loss per resident in Dallas County?
Dallas County averages about $373 per resident in modeled annual loss.
What does FEMA estimate for hail in Dallas County?
For hail, FEMA lists Dallas County at Very High, with about $127.5 million in modeled expected annual loss.
What is the FEMA community resilience rating for Dallas County?
FEMA assigns Dallas County a Very Low community resilience rating.
What annual loss does FEMA model for Dallas County?
Dallas County has about $973.2 million in modeled expected annual loss, a long-run average rather than a yearly forecast.
What does FEMA estimate for winter weather in Dallas County?
For winter weather, FEMA lists Dallas County at Very High, with about $1.3 million in modeled expected annual loss.
What does FEMA estimate for riverine flooding in Dallas County?
For riverine flooding, FEMA lists Dallas County at Very High, with about $323.7 million in modeled expected annual loss.
Where next for Dallas County?
See how the county compares across the state in Texas natural hazard risk by county, download the FEMA county hazard data, or review the county climate risk data API and bulk files. Check the sources and what each measure can show on the methodology page.