Sacramento County, CA flood risk and hazards

Sacramento County in the state and national rankings

At about $352.4 million, modeled expected annual loss in Sacramento County ranks #59 of 3,232 across the US. The county ranks #18 of 58 in California and accounts for 1.2% of state loss. About $352.4 million is the modeled yearly average over the long run, rather than a one-year prediction. The next higher national total is about $354.2 million, in Allegheny County, PA. Will County, IL ranks immediately below it, with about $348.1 million in modeled annual loss. The next higher total within California belongs to Monterey County, CA, at about $402.4 million. That puts the estimates about $50.0 million apart, with 1.3% of state loss in the comparison county. The next lower total within California belongs to Santa Cruz County, CA, at about $335.4 million. About $17.0 million separates those two estimates, and the other county’s state loss share is 1.1%.

California county comparisons

Sacramento County hazard estimates

Riverine Flood

With about $215.7 million in modeled expected annual loss from riverine flooding, the county ranks #32 of 3,232 in the national comparison. In California, this estimate ranks #11 of 58 and represents 61.2% of the county’s modeled loss; FEMA assigns a Relatively High rating; for riverine flooding, 24 state counties and 186 US counties share that label.

Earthquake

The national loss rank for earthquakes is #41 of 3,232, based on about $107.6 million in modeled expected annual loss. This hazard makes up 30.5% of the total; FEMA assigns a Relatively High rating, and its loss ranks #21 of 58 in California, matching 53 US counties, including 20 in California, for this hazard.

Drought

The national loss rank for drought is #21 of 3,225, based on about $13.8 million in modeled expected annual loss. In California, this estimate ranks #18 of 58 and represents 3.9% of the county’s modeled loss; FEMA assigns a Relatively High rating; the same rating for drought covers 18 California counties and 280 across the US.

Heat Wave

For heat waves, about $7.6 million in expected annual loss puts the county #119 of 3,202 across the US. At 2.1% of the county’s modeled loss, the hazard places #19 of 58 statewide; FEMA assigns a Relatively Moderate rating; for heat waves, 14 state counties and 551 US counties share that label.

Wildfire

FEMA models about $4.8 million in expected annual loss from wildfires, placing the county #122 of 3,144 nationally. In California, this estimate ranks #38 of 58 and represents 1.4% of the county’s modeled loss; FEMA assigns a Relatively Moderate rating; the same rating for wildfires covers 21 California counties and 274 across the US.

Tornado

With about $2.1 million in modeled expected annual loss from tornadoes, the county ranks #1,011 of 3,225 in the national comparison. In California, this estimate ranks #7 of 58 and represents 0.6% of the county’s modeled loss; FEMA assigns a Relatively Moderate rating; the same rating for tornadoes covers 5 California counties and 796 across the US.

The loss estimate for riverine flooding exceeds earthquakes by about $108.2 million, equivalent to 30.7 percentage points of total loss. Between earthquakes and drought, the modeled dollar gap is about $93.7 million; their shares differ by 26.6 percentage points. Between drought and heat waves, the modeled dollar gap is about $6.3 million; their shares differ by 1.8 percentage points. Between heat waves and wildfires, the modeled dollar gap is about $2.8 million; their shares differ by 0.8 percentage points. Between wildfires and tornadoes, the modeled dollar gap is about $2.6 million; their shares differ by 0.7 percentage points.

Population and recorded values

Sacramento County covers about 1,004 square miles, with 1,584,652 residents in FEMA data. About $296.05 billion is the building value amount in FEMA’s record. The recorded agricultural value is about $554.2 million. Total modeled loss averages about $222 per resident annually, compared with about $764 statewide. Its 4.0% share of state residents sits alongside 1.2% of of annual loss. The county contains 3.8% of the building value recorded across California. By recorded residents per square mile, the county places 5 among 58 California county records with population and area values. Those recorded totals give about 1,578 residents per square mile, versus about 239 across California. The median county population in California is about 186,448, compared with 1,584,652 locally. Of FEMA’s US population, 0.5% lives here, alongside 0.2% of national modeled annual loss. The county’s about $222 per resident compares with about $459 nationally in modeled annual loss. The six hazards described above together make up 99.8% of modeled loss, about $351.6 million annually. The balance outside those six estimates is about $774,000, or 0.2% of total loss. The county’s number 7 hazard by dollar loss is lightning: about $385,000, with a state rank of #23 of 58. Nationally, this estimate places #1,144 of 3,222; its share of the county’s modeled loss is 0.1%. The estimate for hail ranks #13 of 58 in California: about $314,000 annually, in local position 8. With 0.1% of county loss, this hazard has national placement #1,346 of 3,225.

FEMA labels and risk score

Sacramento County has a FEMA risk index score of about 98.1, ranking #60 of 3,144 nationally. Among 58 California counties, 22 receive the same Relatively High label for risk index. FEMA labels expected annual loss as Relatively High, matching 20 county records across California. FEMA labels social vulnerability as Relatively Low, matching 20 county records across California. For community resilience, FEMA assigns Relatively Moderate; 10 counties in California have that label. Its risk score ranks #18 of 58 within California, while its loss total ranks #18 of 58. Within California, 2 counties share both labels: Relatively Low vulnerability and Relatively Moderate resilience. The group represents 2.6% of statewide loss; this county supplies 45.5% of the group’s modeled amount. On the state risk-score list, San Joaquin County, CA sits immediately above, scoring about 98.6 and ranking #17 of 58. That comparison county holds a Relatively High risk index rating and 1.4% of California modeled annual loss. Santa Cruz County, CA is next below it by state risk score, at about 97.8; that record ranks #19 of 58. FEMA gives that county a Relatively High risk index label, alongside 1.1% of the state loss total. FEMA lists 632 county records with Relatively Low social vulnerability; together they contain 30.0% of its US population total. Across the US, this community resilience category, Relatively Moderate, covers 17.0% of residents in 629 counties. Across the county’s hazard ratings, 3 carry Relatively High: drought, earthquakes, riverine flooding. FEMA assigns Relatively Moderate to 4 hazards here, covering heat waves, lightning, tornadoes, wildfires. Across the county’s hazard ratings, 2 carry Relatively Low: hail, landslides. The county’s Very Low group contains 3 hazards: strong wind, volcanic activity, winter weather.