Hillsborough County, FL flood risk and hazards

Hillsborough County in the state and national rankings

Hillsborough County has about $494.6 million in modeled expected annual loss, ranking #34 of 3,232 nationally. A #4 of 67 state ranking accompanies its 5.6% share of the Florida loss total. FEMA’s about $494.6 million figure describes a long-run average; actual annual loss can differ. Charleston County, SC ranks immediately above it, with about $499.8 million in modeled annual loss. The next lower national total is about $477.3 million, in Santa Barbara County, CA. Within the state list, Palm Beach County, FL has the next higher estimate: about $518.6 million. That puts the estimates about $24.0 million apart, with 5.9% of state loss in the comparison county. The next lower total within Florida belongs to Lee County, FL, at about $433.3 million. Its 4.9% state loss share accompanies an estimate about $61.3 million away from this county’s total.

Florida county comparisons

Hillsborough County hazard estimates

Hurricane

The national loss rank for hurricanes is #17 of 2,485, based on about $178.3 million in modeled expected annual loss. In Florida, this estimate ranks #8 of 67 and represents 36.1% of the county’s modeled loss; FEMA assigns a Very High rating; the Very High label covers 21 state counties and 47 nationally for hurricanes.

Riverine Flood

The national loss rank for riverine flooding is #70 of 3,232, based on about $146.3 million in modeled expected annual loss. At 29.6% of the county’s modeled loss, the hazard places #5 of 67 statewide; FEMA assigns a Relatively High rating; the Relatively High label covers 13 state counties and 186 nationally for riverine flooding.

Tornado

With about $76.8 million in modeled expected annual loss from tornadoes, the county ranks #12 of 3,225 in the national comparison. Its 15.5% share of total loss comes with a state loss rank of #1 of 67; FEMA assigns a Very High rating; for tornadoes, 3 state counties and 37 US counties share that label.

Cold Wave

The national loss rank for cold waves is #13 of 3,232, based on about $54.4 million in modeled expected annual loss. At 11.0% of the county’s modeled loss, the hazard places #1 of 67 statewide; FEMA assigns a Very High rating, matching 39 US counties, including 5 in Florida, for this hazard.

Heat Wave

With about $9.4 million in modeled expected annual loss from heat waves, the county ranks #95 of 3,202 in the national comparison. At 1.9% of the county’s modeled loss, the hazard places #4 of 67 statewide; FEMA assigns a Relatively High rating; the Relatively High label covers 5 state counties and 98 nationally for heat waves.

Lightning

The national loss rank for lightning is #9 of 3,222, based on about $8.1 million in modeled expected annual loss. At 1.6% of the county’s modeled loss, the hazard places #5 of 67 statewide; FEMA assigns a Very High rating; the same rating for lightning covers 24 Florida counties and 109 across the US.

The loss estimate for hurricanes exceeds riverine flooding by about $32.0 million, equivalent to 6.5 percentage points of total loss. Between riverine flooding and tornadoes, the modeled dollar gap is about $69.5 million; their shares differ by 14.1 percentage points. About $22.4 million separates tornadoes from cold waves in the local estimates, equivalent to 4.5 percentage points of county loss. The loss estimate for cold waves exceeds heat waves by about $45.0 million, equivalent to 9.1 percentage points of total loss. For heat waves, modeled loss is about $1.3 million above lightning, leaving 0.3 percentage points between their county shares.

Population and recorded values

Hillsborough County covers about 1,345 square miles, with 1,458,282 residents in FEMA data. For building value, the source records about $228.79 billion. The recorded agricultural value is about $576.3 million. Per resident, the modeled annual amount is about $339; the Florida average is about $409. Its 6.8% share of state residents sits alongside 5.6% of of annual loss. Buildings account for 6.3% of recorded Florida building value. The county holds density position 6 of 67 in Florida, using FEMA’s recorded population and area. Those recorded totals give about 1,084 residents per square mile, versus about 298 across Florida. At 1,458,282 residents, the county compares with the Florida county median of about 129,698. National modeled loss includes a 0.3% contribution from the county, whose residents make up 0.4% of the US source population. For comparison, the US modeled loss average is about $459 per resident; the county figure is about $339. The six hazards described above together make up 95.7% of modeled loss, about $473.4 million annually. The balance outside those six estimates is about $21.1 million, or 4.3% of total loss. The estimate for coastal flooding ranks #8 of 59 in Florida: about $7.8 million annually, in local position 7. With 1.6% of county loss, this hazard has national placement #36 of 588. In position 8 locally, hail has about $5.7 million in modeled annual loss, ranking #2 of 67 statewide. Its national loss rank is #80 of 3,225, and it represents 1.1% of the county’s modeled loss.

FEMA labels and risk score

Hillsborough County has a FEMA risk index score of about 98.8, ranking #38 of 3,144 nationally. The risk index rating is Relatively High, a label shared by 20 of 67 Florida counties. FEMA labels expected annual loss as Relatively High, matching 16 county records across Florida. For social vulnerability, FEMA assigns Relatively Low; 12 counties in Florida have that label. Among 67 Florida counties, 17 receive the same Relatively Low label for community resilience. Within Florida, the risk score places #6 of 67 and the dollar loss places #4 of 67. The Relatively Low vulnerability and Relatively Low resilience pairing appears in 4 Florida counties. This county accounts for 63.8% of that group’s annual loss, while the group accounts for 8.8% across Florida. With a score of about 98.9, Collier County, FL ranks #5 of 67 statewide, immediately above this county. FEMA gives that county a Relatively High risk index label, alongside 4.5% of the state loss total. The adjacent state score below this county belongs to Orange County, FL: about 98.4, ranked #7 of 67. FEMA gives that county a Relatively High risk index label, alongside 4.8% of the state loss total. Nationally, 632 counties carry the same Relatively Low social vulnerability label, covering 30.0% of FEMA’s recorded population. Across the US, this community resilience category, Relatively Low, covers 11.7% of residents in 629 counties. FEMA assigns Very High to 4 hazards here, covering cold waves, hurricanes, lightning, tornadoes. The county’s Relatively High group contains 4 hazards: coastal flooding, hail, heat waves, riverine flooding. FEMA assigns Relatively Moderate to 3 hazards here, covering drought, strong wind, wildfires. Across the county’s hazard ratings, 2 carry Relatively Low: earthquakes, landslides.