Wayne County, MI flood risk and natural hazards

Wayne County in the state and national rankings

For Wayne County, FEMA’s modeled annual loss totals about $401.5 million; its US rank is #45 of 3,232. A #1 of 83 state ranking accompanies its 14.1% share of the Michigan loss total. About $401.5 million is the modeled yearly average over the long run, rather than a one-year prediction. Monterey County, CA ranks immediately above it, with about $402.4 million in modeled annual loss. Collier County, FL ranks immediately below it, with about $398.2 million in modeled annual loss. At about $359.1 million, Oakland County, MI is one place lower in the state loss ordering. About $42.5 million separates those two estimates, and the other county’s state loss share is 12.6%.

Michigan county comparisons

Wayne County hazard estimates

Riverine Flood

FEMA models about $237.3 million in expected annual loss from riverine flooding, placing the county #28 of 3,232 nationally. This hazard makes up 59.1% of the total; FEMA assigns a Very High rating, and its loss ranks #1 of 83 in Michigan; the Very High label covers 1 state county and 26 nationally for riverine flooding.

Cold Wave

The national loss rank for cold waves is #10 of 3,232, based on about $59.8 million in modeled expected annual loss. In Michigan, this estimate ranks #1 of 83 and represents 14.9% of the county’s modeled loss; FEMA assigns a Very High rating; the Very High label covers 3 state counties and 39 nationally for cold waves.

Tornado

With about $43.8 million in modeled expected annual loss from tornadoes, the county ranks #29 of 3,225 in the national comparison. At 10.9% of the county’s modeled loss, the hazard places #3 of 83 statewide; FEMA assigns a Very High rating; for tornadoes, 3 state counties and 37 US counties share that label.

Heat Wave

For heat waves, about $31.8 million in expected annual loss puts the county #27 of 3,202 across the US. At 7.9% of the county’s modeled loss, the hazard places #1 of 83 statewide; FEMA assigns a Relatively High rating; the Relatively High label covers 2 state counties and 98 nationally for heat waves.

Strong Wind

FEMA models about $12.7 million in expected annual loss from strong wind, placing the county #15 of 3,225 nationally. This hazard makes up 3.2% of the total; FEMA assigns a Very High rating, and its loss ranks #1 of 83 in Michigan; the same rating for strong wind covers 6 Michigan counties and 63 across the US.

Earthquake

The national loss rank for earthquakes is #220 of 3,232, based on about $9.9 million in modeled expected annual loss. This hazard makes up 2.5% of the total; FEMA assigns a Relatively Moderate rating, and its loss ranks #1 of 83 in Michigan; the same rating for earthquakes covers 1 Michigan county and 250 across the US.

For riverine flooding, modeled loss is about $177.5 million above cold waves, leaving 44.2 percentage points between their county shares. The loss estimate for cold waves exceeds tornadoes by about $16.0 million, equivalent to 4.0 percentage points of total loss. For tornadoes, modeled loss is about $12.0 million above heat waves, leaving 3.0 percentage points between their county shares. The loss estimate for heat waves exceeds strong wind by about $19.1 million, equivalent to 4.7 percentage points of total loss. For strong wind, modeled loss is about $2.8 million above earthquakes, leaving 0.7 percentage points between their county shares.

Population and recorded values

Wayne County covers about 680 square miles, with 1,792,549 residents in FEMA data. About $356.40 billion is the building value amount in FEMA’s record. For agricultural value, the source records about $29.8 million. Per resident, the modeled annual amount is about $224; the Michigan average is about $283. Its 17.8% share of state residents sits alongside 14.1% of of annual loss. The county contains 15.5% of the building value recorded across Michigan. The county holds density position 1 of 83 in Michigan, using FEMA’s recorded population and area. The population-to-area ratio is about 2,638 residents per square mile; statewide it is about 103. The median county population in Michigan is about 37,342, compared with 1,792,549 locally. National modeled loss includes a 0.3% contribution from the county, whose residents make up 0.5% of the US source population. The county’s about $224 per resident compares with about $459 nationally in modeled annual loss. The six hazards described above together make up 98.5% of modeled loss, about $395.3 million annually. The balance outside those six estimates is about $6.2 million, or 1.5% of total loss. The estimate for ice storms ranks #3 of 83 in Michigan: about $2.8 million annually, in local position 7. Its national loss rank is #46 of 3,001, and it represents 0.7% of the county’s modeled loss. In position 8 locally, lightning has about $2.5 million in modeled annual loss, ranking #1 of 83 statewide. This 0.6% slice of county loss ranks #89 of 3,222 across US counties.

FEMA labels and risk score

Wayne County has a FEMA risk index score of about 99.0, ranking #34 of 3,144 nationally. The risk index rating is Relatively High, a label shared by 3 of 83 Michigan counties. For expected annual loss, FEMA assigns Relatively High; 3 counties in Michigan have that label. Among 83 Michigan counties, 18 receive the same Relatively High label for social vulnerability. FEMA labels community resilience as Relatively Moderate, matching 10 county records across Michigan. Within Michigan, the risk score places #1 of 83 and the dollar loss places #1 of 83. Within Michigan, 3 counties share both labels: Relatively High vulnerability and Relatively Moderate resilience. Those counties together hold 14.5% of Michigan modeled loss, including this county’s 97.3% share of their total. On the state risk-score list, Oakland County, MI sits immediately below, scoring about 97.5 and ranking #2 of 83. FEMA gives that county a Relatively High risk index label, alongside 12.6% of the state loss total. Nationally, 630 counties carry the same Relatively High social vulnerability label, covering 15.4% of FEMA’s recorded population. The Relatively Moderate category for community resilience includes 629 US counties and 17.0% of recorded US residents. The county’s Very High group contains 6 hazards: cold waves, ice storms, lightning, riverine flooding, strong wind, tornadoes. The county’s Relatively High group contains 2 hazards: heat waves, winter weather. Across the county’s hazard ratings, 1 carry Relatively Moderate: earthquakes. Across the county’s hazard ratings, 2 carry Relatively Low: coastal flooding, hail. The county’s Very Low group contains 3 hazards: hurricanes, landslides, wildfires.