Pennsylvania natural hazard risk by county
Pennsylvania has about $4.07 billion in modeled expected annual loss across 67 counties. The state accounts for 2.6% of the national modeled loss total. Its total ranks #8 among 56 state-level entries by modeled loss. FEMA published these 67 county estimates in its December 2025 National Risk Index. The modeled $4.07 billion annual average does not predict loss in any one year.
- Modeled expected annual loss
- $4.07 billion / year
- Share of US loss
- 2.6%
- State loss rank
- #8 of 56
- Largest modeled-loss hazard
- Riverine Flood
Pennsylvania county modeled loss
- Positive estimates to $15.0 million
- Above $15.0 million to $22.3 million
- Above $22.3 million to $35.5 million
- Above $35.5 million to $76.3 million
- Above $76.3 million to $667.1 million
- No FEMA estimate
Pennsylvania counties use five within-state quantile classes of modeled expected annual loss. Darker rust means a larger estimate; outlined counties have detailed pages.
View chart data
| County | Modeled expected annual loss (USD/year) | Overall risk rating |
|---|---|---|
| Lebanon County, PA | 43,208,792.25 | Relatively Low |
| Beaver County, PA | 35,451,569.66 | Relatively Low |
| Venango County, PA | 15,776,747.71 | Relatively Low |
| Greene County, PA | 17,028,554.12 | Relatively Low |
| Jefferson County, PA | 14,012,316.28 | Relatively Low |
| Cambria County, PA | 31,616,346.17 | Relatively Low |
| Lancaster County, PA | 169,988,837.42 | Relatively High |
| Allegheny County, PA | 354,245,204.27 | Relatively High |
| Erie County, PA | 47,569,909.80 | Relatively Moderate |
| Bucks County, PA | 202,625,246.34 | Relatively High |
| Armstrong County, PA | 27,753,998.00 | Relatively Low |
| Cameron County, PA | 4,189,711.83 | Very Low |
| Carbon County, PA | 21,579,996.93 | Relatively Low |
| Elk County, PA | 15,490,932.34 | Relatively Low |
| Bedford County, PA | 24,218,329.75 | Relatively Low |
| Chester County, PA | 172,609,966.80 | Relatively Moderate |
| Clarion County, PA | 8,682,274.12 | Very Low |
| Forest County, PA | 4,980,104.68 | Very Low |
| Northumberland County, PA | 37,320,859.36 | Relatively Low |
| Fulton County, PA | 4,080,430.84 | Very Low |
| Northampton County, PA | 90,368,193.73 | Relatively Moderate |
| Juniata County, PA | 8,807,785.11 | Very Low |
| Wyoming County, PA | 13,528,228.12 | Relatively Low |
| Lawrence County, PA | 24,584,787.14 | Relatively Low |
| Mercer County, PA | 34,133,901.94 | Relatively Low |
| Luzerne County, PA | 87,972,040.49 | Relatively Moderate |
| Blair County, PA | 33,904,219.28 | Relatively Low |
| Somerset County, PA | 21,919,722.32 | Relatively Low |
| Delaware County, PA | 134,945,967.91 | Relatively Moderate |
| Indiana County, PA | 18,747,478.81 | Relatively Low |
| Lehigh County, PA | 128,346,728.27 | Relatively Moderate |
| Tioga County, PA | 18,560,082.80 | Relatively Low |
| Pike County, PA | 24,459,592.70 | Relatively Low |
| Mifflin County, PA | 18,423,202.03 | Relatively Low |
| Schuylkill County, PA | 48,854,903.57 | Relatively Moderate |
| Lycoming County, PA | 40,912,897.56 | Relatively Low |
| Columbia County, PA | 24,358,016.41 | Relatively Low |
| Monroe County, PA | 56,876,409.06 | Relatively Moderate |
| Union County, PA | 14,419,669.68 | Relatively Low |
| Crawford County, PA | 26,761,270.42 | Relatively Low |
| Wayne County, PA | 17,204,352.23 | Relatively Low |
| Susquehanna County, PA | 17,934,108.44 | Relatively Low |
| Potter County, PA | 7,694,445.49 | Very Low |
| Montour County, PA | 5,454,760.16 | Very Low |
| Cumberland County, PA | 68,706,976.68 | Relatively Moderate |
| Centre County, PA | 24,891,449.52 | Relatively Low |
| Perry County, PA | 18,200,766.39 | Relatively Low |
| Snyder County, PA | 14,951,973.58 | Relatively Low |
| Clearfield County, PA | 22,313,784.17 | Relatively Low |
| Philadelphia County, PA | 667,071,998.26 | Very High |
| Warren County, PA | 23,103,317.52 | Relatively Low |
| Clinton County, PA | 13,800,086.05 | Relatively Low |
| Butler County, PA | 47,708,453.54 | Relatively Low |
| Fayette County, PA | 37,097,747.30 | Relatively Moderate |
| Lackawanna County, PA | 72,398,590.60 | Relatively Moderate |
| Sullivan County, PA | 4,070,204.88 | Very Low |
| Washington County, PA | 57,378,735.59 | Relatively Moderate |
| McKean County, PA | 15,045,539.85 | Relatively Low |
| Berks County, PA | 119,508,893.04 | Relatively Moderate |
| Adams County, PA | 27,230,974.47 | Relatively Low |
| York County, PA | 105,987,951.58 | Relatively Moderate |
| Montgomery County, PA | 296,651,817.78 | Relatively High |
| Huntingdon County, PA | 15,536,497.14 | Relatively Low |
| Westmoreland County, PA | 76,279,515.31 | Relatively Moderate |
| Dauphin County, PA | 99,794,081.62 | Relatively Moderate |
| Bradford County, PA | 32,209,666.72 | Relatively Low |
| Franklin County, PA | 37,690,085.91 | Relatively Low |
Reading the Pennsylvania county map
The map groups 67 county estimates into five within-state loss classes. Each boundary follows the county geography, while the fill represents modeled dollars per year. The class breaks are calculated from Pennsylvania county values, so a matching shade on another state page need not represent the same amount. Grey marks unmatched geography or an unavailable estimate. Outlined counties link to the detailed profiles available in this release; counties without profiles still contribute to the state totals.
Together, the three largest estimates account for 32.4% of Pennsylvania modeled annual loss. Their combined population represents 28.5% of the state source population. Comparing these two shares helps distinguish the concentration of modeled dollars from the concentration of residents. Neither share identifies the exposure of an individual address, and the map does not show the location of damage within a county.
Ten largest county loss estimates
Philadelphia County, PA has the largest modeled expected annual loss in this comparison, about $667.1 million.
View chart data
| Place | USD / year |
|---|---|
| Philadelphia County, PA | 667,071,998.26 |
| Allegheny County, PA | 354,245,204.27 |
| Montgomery County, PA | 296,651,817.78 |
| Bucks County, PA | 202,625,246.34 |
| Chester County, PA | 172,609,966.80 |
| Lancaster County, PA | 169,988,837.42 |
| Delaware County, PA | 134,945,967.91 |
| Lehigh County, PA | 128,346,728.27 |
| Berks County, PA | 119,508,893.04 |
| York County, PA | 105,987,951.58 |
County totals beside population
Philadelphia County, PA combines about $667.1 million in modeled annual loss with 1,602,305 recorded residents. Dividing those figures gives about $416 per resident, compared with $313 statewide. On this population-adjusted measure, the county places #15 among the 67 state county records. This ratio spreads all modeled losses across residents for comparison; it is not a household bill, an insurance premium or an estimate of personal damage.
Allegheny County, PA combines about $354.2 million in modeled annual loss with 1,249,907 recorded residents. Dividing those figures gives about $283 per resident, compared with $313 statewide. On this population-adjusted measure, the county places #48 among the 67 state county records. This ratio spreads all modeled losses across residents for comparison; it is not a household bill, an insurance premium or an estimate of personal damage.
State hazard loss mix
Riverine Flood leads the modeled expected annual loss mix; bar lengths share a zero baseline.
View chart data
| Hazard | USD / year | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Riverine Flood | 2,733,895,303.91 | 67.2% |
| Heat Wave | 364,836,935.25 | 9.0% |
| Cold Wave | 255,588,998.45 | 6.3% |
| Hurricane | 170,297,992.37 | 4.2% |
| Tornado | 152,753,668.69 | 3.8% |
| Earthquake | 147,890,948.48 | 3.6% |
| Other | 243,910,447.95 | 6.0% |
Montgomery County, PA combines about $296.7 million in modeled annual loss with 856,020 recorded residents. Dividing those figures gives about $347 per resident, compared with $313 statewide. On this population-adjusted measure, the county places #27 among the 67 state county records. This ratio spreads all modeled losses across residents for comparison; it is not a household bill, an insurance premium or an estimate of personal damage.
Where the leading hazards are concentrated
For riverine flooding, Allegheny County, PA contributes 10.8% of the state hazard total. The next county, Philadelphia County, PA, contributes about $266.1 million annually, compared with $295.0 million for the leader. Across Pennsylvania, 67 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $2.17 billion after those two leading estimates. The state places #6 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 67.2%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.
County hazard rating counts
- Very Low
- Relatively Low
- Relatively Moderate
- Relatively High
- Very High
- No rating
Pennsylvania has 67 county records in each row. Each bar shows the FEMA risk rating distribution for one of the three largest modeled-loss hazards.
View chart data
| Hazard | Rating | Count |
|---|---|---|
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 1 |
| Riverine Flood | Relatively Low | 17 |
| Riverine Flood | Relatively Moderate | 34 |
| Riverine Flood | Relatively High | 13 |
| Riverine Flood | Very High | 2 |
| Riverine Flood | No rating | 0 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 30 |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Low | 21 |
| Heat Wave | Relatively Moderate | 13 |
| Heat Wave | Relatively High | 2 |
| Heat Wave | Very High | 1 |
| Heat Wave | No rating | 0 |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 28 |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Low | 20 |
| Cold Wave | Relatively Moderate | 8 |
| Cold Wave | Relatively High | 8 |
| Cold Wave | Very High | 3 |
| Cold Wave | No rating | 0 |
For heat waves, Philadelphia County, PA contributes 70.3% of the state hazard total. The next county, Montgomery County, PA, contributes about $20.3 million annually, compared with $256.4 million for the leader. Across Pennsylvania, 67 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $88.1 million after those two leading estimates. The state places #5 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 9.0%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.
For cold waves, Philadelphia County, PA contributes 22.3% of the state hazard total. The next county, Allegheny County, PA, contributes about $31.9 million annually, compared with $57.0 million for the leader. Across Pennsylvania, 67 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $166.6 million after those two leading estimates. The state places #10 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 6.3%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.
For hurricanes, Lancaster County, PA contributes 13.8% of the state hazard total. The next county, York County, PA, contributes about $15.3 million annually, compared with $23.6 million for the leader. Across Pennsylvania, 67 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $131.5 million after those two leading estimates. The state places #15 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 4.2%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.
For tornadoes, Philadelphia County, PA contributes 13.8% of the state hazard total. The next county, Montgomery County, PA, contributes about $15.5 million annually, compared with $21.1 million for the leader. Across Pennsylvania, 67 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $116.2 million after those two leading estimates. The state places #24 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 3.8%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.
For earthquakes, Philadelphia County, PA contributes 28.1% of the state hazard total. The next county, Montgomery County, PA, contributes about $14.5 million annually, compared with $41.6 million for the leader. Across Pennsylvania, 67 county records have a positive modeled estimate for this hazard. The remaining counties together account for about $91.8 million after those two leading estimates. The state places #19 of 56 state-level entries for this hazard. Its share of the state loss mix is 3.6%. These comparisons describe modeled losses rather than future events.
Pennsylvania hazard totals and county comparisons
| Hazard | Modeled annual loss | State share | VH / RH counties | Largest county | US state rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riverine Flood | $2.73 billion | 67.2% | 2 / 13 | Allegheny County, PA | #6 of 56 |
| Heat Wave | $364.8 million | 9.0% | 1 / 2 | Philadelphia County, PA | #5 of 56 |
| Cold Wave | $255.6 million | 6.3% | 3 / 8 | Philadelphia County, PA | #10 of 56 |
| Hurricane | $170.3 million | 4.2% | 0 / 2 | Lancaster County, PA | #15 of 56 |
| Tornado | $152.8 million | 3.8% | 0 / 6 | Philadelphia County, PA | #24 of 56 |
| Earthquake | $147.9 million | 3.6% | 0 / 1 | Philadelphia County, PA | #19 of 56 |
| Strong Wind | $97.2 million | 2.4% | 1 / 19 | Montgomery County, PA | #15 of 56 |
| Lightning | $55.2 million | 1.4% | 1 / 30 | Monroe County, PA | #6 of 56 |
| Winter Weather | $33.2 million | 0.8% | 11 / 14 | Montgomery County, PA | #2 of 56 |
| Drought | $20.9 million | 0.5% | 0 / 2 | Chester County, PA | #21 of 56 |
| Hail | $14.9 million | 0.4% | 0 / 1 | Philadelphia County, PA | #30 of 56 |
| Ice Storm | $14.9 million | 0.4% | 2 / 4 | Bucks County, PA | #23 of 56 |
| Coastal Flood | $4.5 million | 0.1% | 0 / 1 | Philadelphia County, PA | #22 of 56 |
| Landslide | $1.7 million | 0.0% | 0 / 1 | Indiana County, PA | #18 of 56 |
| Wildfire | $1.5 million | 0.0% | 0 / 0 | Pike County, PA | #40 of 56 |
| Avalanche | $16,000 | 0.0% | 0 / 0 | Lycoming County, PA | #17 of 56 |
Hazard shares show which modeled expected annual losses dominate the state total; ranks compare state totals for the same hazard.
Pennsylvania hazard totals combine the county estimates. The largest county column identifies concentration within each hazard; the state rank compares the same hazard across state-level entries.
Pennsylvania county loss totals
| County | Risk index rating | Modeled annual loss | Largest hazard |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia County | Very High | $667.1 million | Riverine Flood |
| Allegheny County | Relatively High | $354.2 million | Riverine Flood |
| Montgomery County | Relatively High | $296.7 million | Riverine Flood |
| Bucks County | Relatively High | $202.6 million | Riverine Flood |
| Chester County | Relatively Moderate | $172.6 million | Riverine Flood |
| Lancaster County | Relatively High | $170.0 million | Riverine Flood |
| Delaware County | Relatively Moderate | $134.9 million | Riverine Flood |
| Lehigh County | Relatively Moderate | $128.3 million | Riverine Flood |
| Berks County | Relatively Moderate | $119.5 million | Riverine Flood |
| York County | Relatively Moderate | $106.0 million | Riverine Flood |
| Dauphin County | Relatively Moderate | $99.8 million | Riverine Flood |
| Northampton County | Relatively Moderate | $90.4 million | Riverine Flood |
| Luzerne County | Relatively Moderate | $88.0 million | Riverine Flood |
| Westmoreland County | Relatively Moderate | $76.3 million | Riverine Flood |
| Lackawanna County | Relatively Moderate | $72.4 million | Riverine Flood |
Show all 67 counties
| County | Risk index rating | Modeled annual loss | Largest hazard |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cumberland County | Relatively Moderate | $68.7 million | Riverine Flood |
| Washington County | Relatively Moderate | $57.4 million | Riverine Flood |
| Monroe County | Relatively Moderate | $56.9 million | Riverine Flood |
| Schuylkill County | Relatively Moderate | $48.9 million | Riverine Flood |
| Butler County | Relatively Low | $47.7 million | Riverine Flood |
| Erie County | Relatively Moderate | $47.6 million | Riverine Flood |
| Lebanon County | Relatively Low | $43.2 million | Riverine Flood |
| Lycoming County | Relatively Low | $40.9 million | Riverine Flood |
| Franklin County | Relatively Low | $37.7 million | Riverine Flood |
| Northumberland County | Relatively Low | $37.3 million | Riverine Flood |
| Fayette County | Relatively Moderate | $37.1 million | Riverine Flood |
| Beaver County | Relatively Low | $35.5 million | Riverine Flood |
| Mercer County | Relatively Low | $34.1 million | Riverine Flood |
| Blair County | Relatively Low | $33.9 million | Riverine Flood |
| Bradford County | Relatively Low | $32.2 million | Riverine Flood |
| Cambria County | Relatively Low | $31.6 million | Riverine Flood |
| Armstrong County | Relatively Low | $27.8 million | Riverine Flood |
| Adams County | Relatively Low | $27.2 million | Riverine Flood |
| Crawford County | Relatively Low | $26.8 million | Riverine Flood |
| Centre County | Relatively Low | $24.9 million | Riverine Flood |
| Lawrence County | Relatively Low | $24.6 million | Riverine Flood |
| Pike County | Relatively Low | $24.5 million | Riverine Flood |
| Columbia County | Relatively Low | $24.4 million | Riverine Flood |
| Bedford County | Relatively Low | $24.2 million | Riverine Flood |
| Warren County | Relatively Low | $23.1 million | Riverine Flood |
| Clearfield County | Relatively Low | $22.3 million | Riverine Flood |
| Somerset County | Relatively Low | $21.9 million | Riverine Flood |
| Carbon County | Relatively Low | $21.6 million | Riverine Flood |
| Indiana County | Relatively Low | $18.7 million | Riverine Flood |
| Tioga County | Relatively Low | $18.6 million | Riverine Flood |
| Mifflin County | Relatively Low | $18.4 million | Riverine Flood |
| Perry County | Relatively Low | $18.2 million | Riverine Flood |
| Susquehanna County | Relatively Low | $17.9 million | Riverine Flood |
| Wayne County | Relatively Low | $17.2 million | Riverine Flood |
| Greene County | Relatively Low | $17.0 million | Riverine Flood |
| Venango County | Relatively Low | $15.8 million | Riverine Flood |
| Huntingdon County | Relatively Low | $15.5 million | Riverine Flood |
| Elk County | Relatively Low | $15.5 million | Riverine Flood |
| McKean County | Relatively Low | $15.0 million | Riverine Flood |
| Snyder County | Relatively Low | $15.0 million | Riverine Flood |
| Union County | Relatively Low | $14.4 million | Riverine Flood |
| Jefferson County | Relatively Low | $14.0 million | Riverine Flood |
| Clinton County | Relatively Low | $13.8 million | Riverine Flood |
| Wyoming County | Relatively Low | $13.5 million | Riverine Flood |
| Juniata County | Very Low | $8.8 million | Riverine Flood |
| Clarion County | Very Low | $8.7 million | Riverine Flood |
| Potter County | Very Low | $7.7 million | Riverine Flood |
| Montour County | Very Low | $5.5 million | Riverine Flood |
| Forest County | Very Low | $5.0 million | Riverine Flood |
| Cameron County | Very Low | $4.2 million | Riverine Flood |
| Fulton County | Very Low | $4.1 million | Riverine Flood |
| Sullivan County | Very Low | $4.1 million | Riverine Flood |
Pennsylvania population, values and ratings
- Population
- 12,994,073
- Building value
- $3,044.49 billion
- Agricultural value
- $9.99 billion
- Modeled loss per resident
- $313
Overall county risk ratings
- Very Low: 8
- Relatively Low: 38
- Relatively Moderate: 16
- Relatively High: 4
- Very High: 1
Pennsylvania overall ratings describe relative county risk. Segment widths count counties, rather than residents or modeled dollars.
View chart data
| Rating | Count |
|---|---|
| Very Low | 8 |
| Relatively Low | 38 |
| Relatively Moderate | 16 |
| Relatively High | 4 |
| Very High | 1 |
Pennsylvania county pages
Pennsylvania has 2 detailed county pages linked below.
Questions about Pennsylvania
Which Pennsylvania county has the largest modeled loss?
Philadelphia County, PA leads Pennsylvania, with about $667.1 million in modeled expected annual loss.
Which hazard leads modeled loss in Pennsylvania?
Riverine flooding leads Pennsylvania, at about $2.73 billion annually.
What total loss does FEMA model for Pennsylvania?
Pennsylvania has about $4.07 billion in modeled expected annual loss.
What share of national loss belongs to Pennsylvania?
The state accounts for 2.6% of national modeled loss.
How many counties appear in the Pennsylvania table?
The Pennsylvania table contains 67 counties and county equivalents.
Where does Pennsylvania rank by modeled loss?
Pennsylvania places #8 of 56 state-level entries by modeled expected annual loss.
Does the Pennsylvania estimate predict next year?
The Pennsylvania figure is a long-run modeled annual average, rather than a forecast for any single year.
Pennsylvania county modeled expected annual loss, in five within-state quantile classes.