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Philadelphia County, PA flood risk and hazards

FEMA rates riverine flooding and heat wave risk as Very High in Philadelphia County, PA. Modeled losses from natural hazards (expected annual loss) average about $667 million a year, for a population of 1,602,305. These county figures come from the FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025 release. Observation windows vary by metric and sit beside the tables below.

Modeled expected annual loss
$667.1 million / year
US loss rank
#21 of 3,232
State loss rank
#1 of 67
Loss per resident
$416 · state $313 · US $459
FEMA overall risk rating
Very High

Pennsylvania county modeled loss

Lebanon County, PA: 6.48% of Philadelphia lossBeaver County, PA: 5.31% of Philadelphia lossVenango County, PA: 2.37% of Philadelphia lossGreene County, PA: 2.55% of Philadelphia lossJefferson County, PA: 2.10% of Philadelphia lossCambria County, PA: 4.74% of Philadelphia lossLancaster County, PA: 25.48% of Philadelphia lossAllegheny County, PA: 53.10% of Philadelphia lossErie County, PA: 7.13% of Philadelphia lossBucks County, PA: 30.38% of Philadelphia lossArmstrong County, PA: 4.16% of Philadelphia lossCameron County, PA: 0.63% of Philadelphia lossCarbon County, PA: 3.24% of Philadelphia lossElk County, PA: 2.32% of Philadelphia lossBedford County, PA: 3.63% of Philadelphia lossChester County, PA: 25.88% of Philadelphia lossClarion County, PA: 1.30% of Philadelphia lossForest County, PA: 0.75% of Philadelphia lossNorthumberland County, PA: 5.59% of Philadelphia lossFulton County, PA: 0.61% of Philadelphia lossNorthampton County, PA: 13.55% of Philadelphia lossJuniata County, PA: 1.32% of Philadelphia lossWyoming County, PA: 2.03% of Philadelphia lossLawrence County, PA: 3.69% of Philadelphia lossMercer County, PA: 5.12% of Philadelphia lossLuzerne County, PA: 13.19% of Philadelphia lossBlair County, PA: 5.08% of Philadelphia lossSomerset County, PA: 3.29% of Philadelphia lossDelaware County, PA: 20.23% of Philadelphia lossIndiana County, PA: 2.81% of Philadelphia lossLehigh County, PA: 19.24% of Philadelphia lossTioga County, PA: 2.78% of Philadelphia lossPike County, PA: 3.67% of Philadelphia lossMifflin County, PA: 2.76% of Philadelphia lossSchuylkill County, PA: 7.32% of Philadelphia lossLycoming County, PA: 6.13% of Philadelphia lossColumbia County, PA: 3.65% of Philadelphia lossMonroe County, PA: 8.53% of Philadelphia lossUnion County, PA: 2.16% of Philadelphia lossCrawford County, PA: 4.01% of Philadelphia lossWayne County, PA: 2.58% of Philadelphia lossSusquehanna County, PA: 2.69% of Philadelphia lossPotter County, PA: 1.15% of Philadelphia lossMontour County, PA: 0.82% of Philadelphia lossCumberland County, PA: 10.30% of Philadelphia lossCentre County, PA: 3.73% of Philadelphia lossPerry County, PA: 2.73% of Philadelphia lossSnyder County, PA: 2.24% of Philadelphia lossClearfield County, PA: 3.35% of Philadelphia lossPhiladelphia County, PA: $667.1 millionWarren County, PA: 3.46% of Philadelphia lossClinton County, PA: 2.07% of Philadelphia lossButler County, PA: 7.15% of Philadelphia lossFayette County, PA: 5.56% of Philadelphia lossLackawanna County, PA: 10.85% of Philadelphia lossSullivan County, PA: 0.61% of Philadelphia lossWashington County, PA: 8.60% of Philadelphia lossMcKean County, PA: 2.26% of Philadelphia lossBerks County, PA: 17.92% of Philadelphia lossAdams County, PA: 4.08% of Philadelphia lossYork County, PA: 15.89% of Philadelphia lossMontgomery County, PA: 44.47% of Philadelphia lossHuntingdon County, PA: 2.33% of Philadelphia lossWestmoreland County, PA: 11.43% of Philadelphia lossDauphin County, PA: 14.96% of Philadelphia lossBradford County, PA: 4.83% of Philadelphia lossFranklin County, PA: 5.65% of Philadelphia lossPhiladelphia County, PA: detailed page available
  • Positive estimates to $15.0 million
  • Above $15.0 million to $22.3 million
  • Above $22.3 million to $35.5 million
  • Above $35.5 million to $76.3 million
  • Above $76.3 million to $667.1 million
  • No FEMA estimate

Philadelphia County, PA ranks #1 of 67 in the state for modeled expected annual loss; the outline locates it.

View chart data

Is Philadelphia County at risk of flooding?

FEMA labels riverine flooding Very High and coastal flooding Relatively High. Modeled annual riverine flood loss is $266,057,136; coastal flood loss is $2,801,833. These are separate hazards and county totals. A rating describes relative county risk. It does not locate water at a building or establish a flood zone. Read missing statuses using the source documentation. Keep both source labels when comparing counties. Read the county rating versus flood-zone guide before requesting a location check.

Look up an address and its flood zone through FEMA’s Flood Map Service Center.

The local hazard planning document is Philadelphia Hazard Mitigation Plan. Local governments use this plan to set out hazards and proposed projects.

What natural hazards affect Philadelphia County most?

Show tabular data
CountyModeled expected annual loss (USD/year)Overall risk rating
Philadelphia County, PA667,071,998.26Very High
Fixed snapshot: FEMA National Risk Index (December 2025 release). Each metric retains its label, unit and observation window; source release and observation periods are documented separately.
Show tabular data
Hazard ratings · original FEMA source labels
HazardSource labelObservation window
Coastal floodingRelatively High1996-2023
Riverine floodingVery High1996-2023
HurricaneRelatively High1851-2024
WildfireVery Low1996-2023
EarthquakeRelatively High1996-2023
TornadoRelatively High1950-2023
Heat waveVery High2005-2024
HISTORICAL CLIMATE / REGIONAL CONTEXT

How have heat and rain changed in Philadelphia County?

Hot days

Days / year1991–20003.81991–2000: 3.80 Days / year2016–20253.02016–2025: 3.00 Days / year05.0

Hot days decreased between the two decades.

View chart data
PlaceDays / year
1991–20003.80
2016–20253.00

Warm nights

Days / year1991–20000.61991–2000: 0.60 Days / year2016–20252.02016–2025: 2.00 Days / year05.0

Warm nights increased between the two decades.

View chart data
PlaceDays / year
1991–20000.60
2016–20252.00

Heavy-precipitation days

Days / year1991–20001.01991–2000: 1.00 Days / year2016–20251.02016–2025: 1.00 Days / year05.0

Heavy-precipitation days have the same mean in both decades.

View chart data
PlaceDays / year
1991–20001.00
2016–20251.00

Humid-heat days

Days / year1991–20002.31991–2000: 2.30 Days / year2016–20254.82016–2025: 4.80 Days / year05.0

Humid-heat days increased between the two decades.

View chart data
PlaceDays / year
1991–20002.30
2016–20254.80
NASA satellite-and-model climate data are sampled near the US Census Bureau’s 2020 county center of population. This is regional context, not a county average or a property finding.
Philadelphia County · FIPS 42101 · annual decade means · NASA; humid heat: Copernicus (ECMWF)
Measure1991–20002016–2025Change
Hot days · ≥35°C (95°F)3.83.0−0.8
Humid-heat days · heat index ≥103°F (39.4°C)2.34.8+2.5
Warm nights · ≥24°C (75.2°F)0.62.0+1.4
Heavy-rain days · ≥50 mm (≈2 in)1.01.00.0
Annual maximum daily precipitation · mm57.259.9+2.8

Counts are days per year; a grid-cell zero does not mean the county had no such events. Thresholds, time bases and limits: county climate method.

Methodology & sensor cross-check notes

Hot-day cross-check: NOAA’s county-average daily maximum temperature gives 4.4 → 5.7 hot days a year (+1.3); NASA gives 3.8 → 3.0 (−0.8). The series disagree: NASA shows a decrease, while NOAA shows an increase. The footprints differ, so agreement does not validate either count. Warm nights and precipitation were not cross-checked. Humid-heat row: Copernicus (ECMWF) reanalysis. It uses a different regional grid from the NASA measures.

No statistical significance, cause or future trend is established; this does not change the FEMA ratings above.

Climate data: NASA · Population context: US Census Bureau · Hot-day cross-check: NOAA county climate records · Humid heat: Copernicus (ECMWF). Method, sources and limitations · Climate JSON · Data credits.

EL NIÑO HISTORY / WINTER PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE

How does El Niño affect Philadelphia County winters?

Strong El Niño winter precipitation

1957–581957–58: 135.9% of normal precipitation1965–661965–66: 92.0% of normal precipitation1972–731972–73: 129.1% of normal precipitation1982–831982–83: 79.7% of normal precipitation1991–921991–92: 72.0% of normal precipitation1997–981997–98: 114.8% of normal precipitation2009–102009–10: 137.4% of normal precipitation2015–162015–16: 116.8% of normal precipitation2023–242023–24: 149.5% of normal precipitation100% (Normal)0%157%

6 of 9 strong El Niño winters were wetter than normal. The vertical line marks 100% of normal precipitation.

View chart data
WinterPrecipitation (% of normal)
1957–58135.857
1965–6692.050
1972–73129.126
1982–8379.661
1991–9272.028
1997–98114.784
2009–10137.378
2015–16116.817
2023–24149.467

NOAA and IRI both give 100% odds that El Niño conditions (tropical Pacific ONI of at least 0.5°C, not a local weather forecast) are present this winter. In Philadelphia County, 6 of 9 past strong El Niño winters were wetter than normal; the median winter had 117% of normal precipitation (rain and melted snow). The driest, 1991–92, had 72%.

Philadelphia County · Dec–Feb, strong El Niño winters · ONI peak °C · precipitation % of normal · temperature vs county trend · days with 1 inch or more of precipitation · flood claims filed (rank among 47 winters)
WinterONIPrecipitationTemp.Heavy daysClaims
1957–581.7136%0.0°F4—
1965–661.692%0.0°F2—
1972–731.8129%+1.9°F5—
1982–832.180%+2.3°F21 (#14)
1991–921.572%+1.7°F11 (#14)
1997–982.4115%+4.5°F20
2009–101.5137%−2.1°F33 (#6)
2015–162.6117%+4.2°F26 (#4)
2023–242.0149%+2.5°F45 (#5)
Winter normals and temperature baseline

Philadelphia County normals, 1990–91 to 2019–20 winters: 10.4 inches of precipitation (rain and melted snow) and 1.9 heavy days. Temperature is set against the county’s own winter trend of +0.7°F per decade since 1951–52.

Flood claims: December–February, from 1978 (— = before the data). The rank compares each winter with all 47 winters from 1978–79 to 2024–25 (#1 is the most claims; no rank is shown for 0 claims). The median winter had 1 claims; 3 of 6 strong winters in the data were above it. Insured exposure grew over time, so counts are not comparable across decades.

Past tendency is not a forecast and not a property-level finding. Before winter: four checks for property teams.

Sources: NOAA county climate records and Pacific climate assessments; FEMA National Flood Insurance Program claims. Method and limits · El Niño 2026–27.

What are the modeled losses by hazard?

From 1991–2000 to 2016–2025, hot days near Philadelphia County changed from 3.8 to 3.0 per year. Heavy-rain days changed from 1.0 to 1.0. The table retains humid heat, warm nights and maximum daily rain. Compare the periods alongside the source notes. These decade means describe past conditions; they do not predict a future year or establish a trend.

Philadelphia County’s modeled loss across all hazards is $667,071,998 per year. The FEMA National Risk Index ranks the hazards below by modeled loss, not rating category.

Show tabular data
Modeled Expected Annual Loss, ranked by total loss · county totals
HazardTotal loss ($/yr)Of which buildings ($/yr)Observation window
All hazards (composite)$667,071,998$311,666,5981996-2023
Riverine flooding$266,057,136$262,808,5621996-2023
Heat wave$256,419,434Not published2005-2024
Earthquake$41,629,578$24,823,1171996-2023
Tornado$21,102,550$6,605,9941950-2023
Hurricane$12,020,719$11,522,4531851-2024
Coastal flooding$2,801,833$2,618,8971996-2023
Wildfire$8,805$7,3301996-2023

These modeled county totals do not estimate property losses, insurance inputs or forecasts. Do not multiply them by location counts.

Reuse this chart

Chart of Philadelphia County, PA modeled yearly loss by hazard: riverine flooding leads at $266.1M a year. Shows FEMA expected annual loss in dollars for 7 hazards.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025 release. Modeled expected annual loss. Reuse this chart (CC BY 4.0).

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What is exposed in Philadelphia County?

Population and asset values show the scale behind county losses. These county totals are exposure measures, not loss figures.

Show tabular data
Population and asset values · county totals
MeasureValueObservation window
Resident population1,602,3052020-2020
Building replacement value$291,673,614,4042020-2020
Agricultural market value$421,1212022-2022

What do vulnerability and resilience show?

These relative rankings describe susceptibility to hazard impacts and capacity to recover. They measure no individual asset or outcome.

Show tabular data
Community vulnerability and resilience · index scores 0–100
MeasureScoreObservation window
Social vulnerability index88.12020-2020
Community resilience index48.52020-2020

Philadelphia County in the state and national rankings

National placement for Philadelphia County is #21 of 3,232, with an expected annual loss estimate of about $667.1 million. The county ranks #1 of 67 in Pennsylvania and accounts for 16.4% of state loss. The modeled $667.1 million annual average does not predict the loss in any single year. Collin County, TX ranks immediately above it, with about $716.3 million in modeled annual loss. The next lower national total is about $648.0 million, in Broward County, FL. The nearest lower state total is about $354.2 million, recorded for Allegheny County, PA. That puts the estimates about $312.8 million apart, with 8.7% of state loss in the comparison county.

Pennsylvania county comparisons

County hazard loss mix

Riverine Flood$266.1 million · 39.9%Riverine Flood: 266,057,135.71 USD/year; 39.9%Heat Wave$256.4 million · 38.4%Heat Wave: 256,419,434.49 USD/year; 38.4%Cold Wave$57.0 million · 8.6%Cold Wave: 57,040,490.40 USD/year; 8.6%Earthquake$41.6 million · 6.2%Earthquake: 41,629,578.32 USD/year; 6.2%Tornado$21.1 million · 3.2%Tornado: 21,102,549.53 USD/year; 3.2%Hurricane$12.0 million · 1.8%Hurricane: 12,020,719.10 USD/year; 1.8%Other$12.8 million · 1.9%Other: 12,802,090.70 USD/year; 1.9%0$266.1 million

Riverine Flood leads the modeled expected annual loss mix; bar lengths share a zero baseline.

View chart data
HazardUSD / yearShare
Riverine Flood266,057,135.7139.9%
Heat Wave256,419,434.4938.4%
Cold Wave57,040,490.408.6%
Earthquake41,629,578.326.2%
Tornado21,102,549.533.2%
Hurricane12,020,719.101.8%
Other12,802,090.701.9%

National hazard loss ranks

Riverine Flood#23 of 3,232 US · #2 of 67 in PARiverine Flood: 99.32 percentileHeat Wave#4 of 3,202 US · #1 of 67 in PAHeat Wave: 99.91 percentileCold Wave#11 of 3,232 US · #1 of 67 in PACold Wave: 99.69 percentileEarthquake#74 of 3,232 US · #1 of 67 in PAEarthquake: 97.74 percentileTornado#82 of 3,225 US · #1 of 67 in PATornado: 97.49 percentileHurricane#212 of 2,485 US · #3 of 67 in PAHurricane: 91.51 percentile0100 percentile

Riverine Flood ranks #23 of 3,232 by modeled expected annual loss. Higher percentiles mean larger modeled losses.

View chart data
HazardRankPercentile
Riverine Flood#23 of 3,232 US · #2 of 67 in PA99.32
Heat Wave#4 of 3,202 US · #1 of 67 in PA99.91
Cold Wave#11 of 3,232 US · #1 of 67 in PA99.69
Earthquake#74 of 3,232 US · #1 of 67 in PA97.74
Tornado#82 of 3,225 US · #1 of 67 in PA97.49
Hurricane#212 of 2,485 US · #3 of 67 in PA91.51

Modeled loss per resident

USD / resident / yearPhiladelphia$416Philadelphia: 416.32 USD / resident / yearPennsylvania$313Pennsylvania: 313.16 USD / resident / yearUS$459US: 459.35 USD / resident / year0$459

Philadelphia has about $416 in modeled expected annual loss per resident. State and US values divide total loss by total population.

View chart data
PlaceUSD / resident / year
Philadelphia416.32
Pennsylvania313.16
US459.35

Philadelphia County hazard estimates

Riverine Flood

With about $266.1 million in modeled expected annual loss from riverine flooding, the county ranks #23 of 3,232 in the national comparison. Its 39.9% share of total loss comes with a state loss rank of #2 of 67; FEMA assigns a Very High rating; the same rating for riverine flooding covers 2 Pennsylvania counties and 26 across the US.

Heat Wave

For heat waves, about $256.4 million in expected annual loss puts the county #4 of 3,202 across the US. Its 38.4% share of total loss comes with a state loss rank of #1 of 67; FEMA assigns a Very High rating; the same rating for heat waves covers 1 Pennsylvania county and 11 across the US.

Cold Wave

FEMA models about $57.0 million in expected annual loss from cold waves, placing the county #11 of 3,232 nationally. At 8.6% of the county’s modeled loss, the hazard places #1 of 67 statewide; FEMA assigns a Very High rating, matching 39 US counties, including 3 in Pennsylvania, for this hazard.

Earthquake

FEMA models about $41.6 million in expected annual loss from earthquakes, placing the county #74 of 3,232 nationally. This hazard makes up 6.2% of the total; FEMA assigns a Relatively High rating, and its loss ranks #1 of 67 in Pennsylvania, matching 53 US counties, including 1 in Pennsylvania, for this hazard.

Tornado

The national loss rank for tornadoes is #82 of 3,225, based on about $21.1 million in modeled expected annual loss. Its 3.2% share of total loss comes with a state loss rank of #1 of 67; FEMA assigns a Relatively High rating, matching 272 US counties, including 6 in Pennsylvania, for this hazard.

Hurricane

FEMA models about $12.0 million in expected annual loss from hurricanes, placing the county #212 of 2,485 nationally. This hazard makes up 1.8% of the total; FEMA assigns a Relatively High rating, and its loss ranks #3 of 67 in Pennsylvania; the Relatively High label covers 2 state counties and 118 nationally for hurricanes.

The loss estimate for riverine flooding exceeds heat waves by about $9.6 million, equivalent to 1.4 percentage points of total loss. About $199.4 million separates heat waves from cold waves in the local estimates, equivalent to 29.9 percentage points of county loss. The loss estimate for cold waves exceeds earthquakes by about $15.4 million, equivalent to 2.3 percentage points of total loss. About $20.5 million separates earthquakes from tornadoes in the local estimates, equivalent to 3.1 percentage points of county loss. For tornadoes, modeled loss is about $9.1 million above hurricanes, leaving 1.4 percentage points between their county shares.

Population and recorded values

FEMA counts 1,602,305 residents in Philadelphia County, across about 144 square miles. About $291.67 billion is the building value amount in FEMA’s record. About $421,000 is the agricultural value amount in FEMA’s record. Per resident, the modeled annual amount is about $416; the Pennsylvania average is about $313. Its 12.3% share of state residents sits alongside 16.4% of of annual loss. Buildings account for 9.6% of recorded Pennsylvania building value. Its population density ranks 1 within 67 Pennsylvania counties that have both area and population estimates. The population-to-area ratio is about 11,116 residents per square mile; statewide it is about 279. At 1,602,305 residents, the county compares with the Pennsylvania county median of about 83,927. The county’s national shares are 0.5% for population and 0.4% for modeled loss. For comparison, the US modeled loss average is about $459 per resident; the county figure is about $416. The six hazards described above together make up 98.1% of modeled loss, about $654.3 million annually. Other hazards account for the remaining 1.9% of modeled loss, about $12.8 million. The estimate for strong wind ranks #6 of 67 in Pennsylvania: about $3.5 million annually, in local position 7. With 0.5% of county loss, this hazard has national placement #129 of 3,225. The county’s number 8 hazard by dollar loss is coastal flooding: about $2.8 million, with a state rank of #1 of 6. With 0.4% of county loss, this hazard has national placement #86 of 588.

FEMA labels and risk score

Philadelphia County has a FEMA risk index score of about 99.6, ranking #14 of 3,144 nationally. The risk index rating is Very High, a label shared by 1 of 67 Pennsylvania counties. Among 67 Pennsylvania counties, 4 receive the same Relatively High label for expected annual loss. For social vulnerability, FEMA assigns Very High; 5 counties in Pennsylvania have that label. The community resilience rating is Relatively Moderate, a label shared by 4 of 67 Pennsylvania counties. Its risk score ranks #1 of 67 within Pennsylvania, while its loss total ranks #1 of 67. Within Pennsylvania, 2 counties share both labels: Very High vulnerability and Relatively Moderate resilience. Of the modeled loss among these 2 counties, 98.7% belongs here; the group holds 16.6% statewide. With a score of about 98.1, Allegheny County, PA ranks #2 of 67 statewide, immediately below this county. FEMA gives that county a Relatively High risk index label, alongside 8.7% of the state loss total. Nationally, 629 counties carry the same Very High social vulnerability label, covering 8.4% of FEMA’s recorded population. The Relatively Moderate category for community resilience includes 629 US counties and 17.0% of recorded US residents. Across the county’s hazard ratings, 4 carry Very High: cold waves, heat waves, riverine flooding, winter weather. The county’s Relatively High group contains 8 hazards: coastal flooding, earthquakes, hail, hurricanes, ice storms, lightning, strong wind, tornadoes. The county’s Relatively Low group contains 1 hazard: landslides. Across the county’s hazard ratings, 2 carry Very Low: drought, wildfires.

What else should I know about Philadelphia County?

What does FEMA estimate for earthquakes in Philadelphia County?

For earthquakes, FEMA lists Philadelphia County at Relatively High, with about $41.6 million in modeled expected annual loss.

What is the FEMA social vulnerability rating for Philadelphia County?

FEMA assigns Philadelphia County a Very High social vulnerability rating.

What does FEMA estimate for cold waves in Philadelphia County?

For cold waves, FEMA lists Philadelphia County at Very High, with about $57.0 million in modeled expected annual loss.

What does FEMA estimate for riverine flooding in Philadelphia County?

For riverine flooding, FEMA lists Philadelphia County at Very High, with about $266.1 million in modeled expected annual loss.

Which hazard has the largest modeled loss in Philadelphia County?

Riverine flooding leads Philadelphia County, at about $266.1 million in modeled expected annual loss.

Which strong El Niño winter had the most flood claims in Philadelphia County?

Philadelphia County recorded 6 December–February NFIP claims in 2015–16, ranked #4 among 47 winters.

What is modeled loss per resident in Philadelphia County?

Philadelphia County averages about $416 per resident in modeled annual loss.

Where next for Philadelphia County?

See how the county compares across the state in Pennsylvania natural hazard risk by county, download the FEMA county hazard data, or review the county climate risk data API and bulk files. Check the sources and what each measure can show on the methodology page.